Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The buy signal had been lowered to 1.1475 and overnight action was subdued, but selling resumed Friday morning and fresh pullback lows were probed. The buy signal remains unchanged.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already testing the 1283.00 sell signal before Friday’s open, the session remained under pressure while fluctuating narrowly around 1283.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lower lows Friday now require almost immediate recovery to avoid extending into a new downleg, instead of simply trending down with the channel.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fluctuating Thursday around the 145-08 sell signal resolved down overnight to fresh lows, and extended lower Friday to 144-090. Having filled the gap Thursday back down to Wednesday’s lower-open, lower lows suggest the decline is intact. But a second consecutive lower close would help to confirm
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday morning probed fresh intraday highs up to 53.90 while probing the 53.31 overnight high for the first time. While December’s prior highs are now engaging, the retest of its resistance suggetss that shallow pullbacks will soon extend the rally.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s post-open decline to 3.29 extended down overnight to 3.20, where post-open action rallied back into positive territory at 3.44. The 3.37 prior low must hold to maintain the rally’s resumption.
Mid-day Update… Stuck up.
The most bullish scenario may be to avoid a decline.
The noon hour’s high attacked this afternoon’s 2677.25 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. This is still a bias-up environment, and its target is in-play. But it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding when the bias environment begins lapsing.
Meanwhile, upside momentum is suspect. A 2672.25 pullback limit was violated upon entering the noon hour. The rally attempted to resume without first taking time for any accumulative behavior — no backing-and-filling or complexity of any sort. The rally’s attempt to resume hasn’t extended. In fact, the violated pullback limit’s 2668.00 low is being probed now.
This afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence doesn’t prevent there being a temporary corrective dip. Presumably, this current break now testing 2666.00 will be recovered. Back above 2671.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Regardless, WedEX doesn’t require resuming the rally, only retracing dips.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 21, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Globex opens normally at Sunday and Monday evenings, but closes early Monday.
Globex early close
1:15 PM ET
Globex normal open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.00 | 2668.50 |
| …would target | 2676.75 | 2677.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2659.25 | 2660.00 |
| …would target | 2649.25 | 2650.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And higher.
Gap up to target is being exceeded.
The overnight rally had begun probing yesterday’s 2645.50 high to attack 2650.00, and then blipped-up to 2657.50 into the open. The actual open was also the rally’s 2656.00 next higher objective. Its resistance reacted down to 2647.00, overlapping a couple of sell signals but never attracting reinforcements.
Testing a 2651.75 buy signal at the 10:15 bias timing window got a benefit of the doubt for having absorbed sellers. Coincidentally, a favorable China trade headline several minutes later triggered a spike up to 2661.00. And now its retracement has recovered to fresh highs at 2668.50.
Having met 2656.00, no upside requirement is in-play. The next higher notable resistance — its room for noise — is at 2668.50, now being tested. Closing above 2656.00 would put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing back under 2656.00 wouldn’t be predictive of anything, other than sponsorship not exploiting the opportunity to further entrench the rally.