Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Traction.
Selling pressure confirmed.
Trending down through the noon hour had triggered bias-down, stopping 1 point short of the 2035.00 bias-down target. Bouncing during the bias environment attacked 2045.00. 
The bias environment was exited at or under the noon hour’s low.
Traction? Maybe.
The final hour was entered at or under the bias environment’s low. That’s traction. Trending down to fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm.
And the 3:10-3:20 timing window just trended down to 2022.25. That required absorbing a last-minute corrective bounce to 2038.25, so sellers seem intent on retaining control.
Probing under the 1999.00 overnight low would target 1993.50 (typo’d earlier as 2093.50), whether today or tomorrow. Meeting it today would greet the weekend vulnerable to gapping down sharply Monday. Leaving the attraction outstanding would help to resume the decline after the weekend.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
With no unfinished business above as of Thursday’s close, Brexit’s reaction wasn’t defended as price plummeted to a fresh low at 1.0974. it was recovered to probe above 1.1200 intraday, but any immediate recovery would not be credible.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1274.00 buy signal was very productive after Thursday’s close, triggering a retest of the prior week’s highs up to 1362.80 as the pattern had required. Retesting the overnight high requires pullbacks to hold 1308.60-1312.00 as support .
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up to 18.37 in reaction to Brexit was retraced back down to 17.58, and the high’s retest depends on pullbacks now holding 17.75 as support.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally probing the 165-16/165-30 pullback objective overnight allowed a steep reaction to Brexit. The 171-22 target was probed by more than 2 points, but only 171-09 was touched post-open. Resting the overnight high requires pullbacks to hold tests of 169-28.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down sharply overnight broke under the 48.25 sell signal to 46.70 had reacted up to 48.40, leaving the sell signal break intact and targeting 45.00-45.40.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s shallow dip in reaction to EIA wasn’t retested Friday after Brexit. But it was attacked without reacting up, so an eventual higher close can’t yet be dismissed before a deeper pullback
Mid-day Update… All back to normal. Right?
Opening surge largely retraced.
Few weeks have the action offered already by today’s post-open range. Rallying 33 points off of the 2031.50 opening print. Reversing down 29 points through the noon hour’s exit.
Things can get noisy with ranges a small fraction of this size.
This afternoon’s 2040.75 bias-down signal was last touched 5 minutes before 1:20, triggering bias-down. It was soon probed up to 2045.25, but that reacted down to 2039.50. This is a bias-down environment.
A bigger corrective bounce to 2049.00 can’t be discounted. But neither can a last-hour decline that probes last night’s lows down to 1993.50. Only exiting this afternoon’s bias environment above the noon hour’s 2050.00 high would make a rally leg likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 27, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: At least one high-profile econ report Monday starts the week after a tumultuous end to the prior week. Nothing on Monday’s calendar should be an obstacle to trending.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2065.25 | 2056.25 |
| …would target | 2071.25 | 2062.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2049.75 | 2040.75 |
| …would target | 2044.00 | 2035.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.