Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce extended overnight just enough to actually test Wednesday’s 1.1305 close, whose gap wasn’t quite filled. There not being an immediate reaction keeps the door open to a bigger bounce is underway, targeting the prior week’s high close at 1.1400
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-close drop had extended down overnight to test “lower prior highs” and 1281.00 pullback limit. The gap back up to Thursday’s 1308.50 open and the rally’s 1312.00 target should be retested.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down and sliding Friday post-open is nevertheless likely to retest Thursday’s 17.80 gap up before a durable top can form.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the pullback Friday morning tested the pullback limit at 169-00. Back above 170-16 would target 171-22.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and firming Friday was not surprising since Thursday had fulfilled the minimum pullback objective at 47.25. Bounces holding “higher prior lows” around 48.00 maintain the 45.00-45.40 lower objective.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still no trending attempts, breakouts or pullbacks that suggest the pattern would reverse down sharply if trying to rally beyond its 2.70-2.75 target.
Mid-day Update… Up the down staircase.
Late bias-up tries undermining bearish WedEX.
This morning’s dip to attack 2053.00 was retraced back up to 2062.50 through noon. Its reaction down to 2056.00 was recovered entirely. During that recovery, bias-up signaled.
Bias-up signaled late, so its 2066.00 bias-up target isn’t required to be met. The bearish WedEX influence can absorb the target’s test and reverse down before the close. The bias-up itself can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under the afternoon’s 2056.00 low.
Fresh afternoon highs would make the bias-up target likely to be met, regardless of its resolution. But back under 2058.75 would start giving the bearish WedEx more credibility than the bullish bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is otherwise uneventful. But the usual noon hour illiquidity may be shaken by a Fed speaker.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
12:15 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2069.25 | 2060.25 |
| …would target | 2054.75 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2061.75 | 2053.00 |
| …would target | 2056.25 | 2047.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESETED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slip, slip, spike.
Delayed reaction to weak pre and post-open action.
The overnight range held tests of the 2065.00 and 2074.00 bias signals. Greeting the open between them at 2068.00 didn’t offer any compelling entry setups. Not long, or short.
Then the open spiked down, to a fresh low at 2061.50. That was aggressive, and also brief. The next hour ranged choppily back up to 2066.00. That’s not much more predictive than the overnight range.
Still overlapping the 2065.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 invoked the grace period. Sellers exploited it by eventually trending down sharply to 2056.50, whose oversold RSIs require its retest.
So, this is a bias-down environment. Its 2059.25 bias-down signal has been fulfilled. Breaking under 2056.00 would likely extend to 2053.00 — possibly this morning so long as 2062.50 holds as resistance.
This morning’s action has no bearing on the afternoon’s bearish WedEX. Trending down relentlessly isn’t required, but the possible paths should be identifiable by noon.