Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling theminimum third higher close Wednesday required by last week’s confirmed breakout, Thursday’s gap down has potential for ending the corrective rally. But holding 1.1315 as support keeps alive potential for extending to probe above 1.1540.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Upside momentum remained intact after Wednesday fulfilled the 1260.00 next higher objective since 1256.80 held as support. Extending sharply higher Thursday came within $2-3 of filling the gap back up to 1277.00, raising the pullback limit to 1268.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not extending the Tuesday night’s surge much beyond Wednesday’s open didn’t undermine the rally’s momentum, which extended sharply higher Thursday to test 17.35. Pullbacks must now hold 17.19 to maintain the rally’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight extended to test the next higher potential at 168-00. Closing back under 166-12 would signal the fresh highs were a false breakout that is snapping back down. An immediate downleg is unlikely to be durable without first bouncing to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 167-17 close.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight fulfilled the 51.45 objective, already reacting down into Thursday’s open. Raising the sell signal to 50.15 now requires any probe under it to almost collapse for optimal confirmation that the original capitulation pattern is unfolding.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that at least made a knee-jerk reaction down likely to recover, but that was unnecessary since the knee-jerk reaction was up, sharply. Now pullbacks should hold any test of 2.47 to maintain the rally’s momentum, next targeting 2.70 and 2.89.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 10, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s only econ report is high-profile, but has a less reliable influence on price action than historically. That influence might be greater being the morning’s only report. The afternoon’s rig count influence is a function of its influence on Crude Oil, but probably not for more than a knee-jerk reaction.
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2114.00 | 2104.00 |
| …would target | 2119.00 | 2109.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.50 | 2096.50 |
| …would target | 2101.25 | 2091.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Warning shot.
Weak open holds support. For now.
Yesterday morning’s no-bias environment had left outstanding the objective to test its bias-down signal. This morning’s 2098.00 low just neutralized it.
That also fulfills this morning’s bias-down target to within 1 tick. It was put into play by holding the 2103.00 bias-down signal through 10:15.
Now bouncing 4 points to 2102.25 confirms the area’s influence. But it doesn’t reverse momentum up. Still being a bias-down environment, the morning’s upper-end should still be defined by the 2103.00 bias-down signal – even if its probe were to attack 2106.00.
And bouncing during a bias-down environment is likely sponsored by weak hands, refueling sellers. Back under 2100.00 would signal the decline’s momentum remains intact, and targeting lower lows down to the 2094.00 area.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open action has probed the earlier 2100.00 low by 3 ticks, still 6-8 ticks above yesterday’s 2098.00 unfinished business below. Neutralizing its attraction and holding its test through the open could produce one more corrective bounce back into yesterday’s range. Any lower through the open could instead extend down sharply as the reversal unfolds rapidly.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.