Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
fA daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away previously at the 1.1205 bounce limit proved useful in Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Surging through it tested the two-week old consolidation’s upper-end at 1.1350. Back under 1.1315 would signal at least an attack on 1.1205 to prevent a more substantial multi-session corrective rally.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through Thursday’s 1220.00 high in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report extended to test 1246.00. Back under 1231.00 would signal the surge was not gaining momentum, and under 1225.50 would signal momentum reversing down to retest Sunday night’s lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday from the consolidation around 16.00 forms an Island reversal pattern that requires being retested. Reversing down into that retest can begin at any time if 16.60 isn’t recovered — and Friday’s surge didn’t even touch 16.50.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report surged to fresh highs testing the 166-12 target up to 166-23. Its consolidation tried resolving up but only momentarily pierced a fresh high.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without almost literally exploding higher, the ongoing distribution around 49.00 remains likely to capitulate down. A credible signal would already trend down sharply before the close. Friday’s reaction down didn’t fall very far, but gapping down Monday could compensate for the delay.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Higher highs before Friday’s open created a gap up that was reversed back under Thursday’s 2.40 close intraday. Thursday’s close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, so extending higher immediately would help to suggest the recovery’s momentum remains intact. Still testing 2.40 through the close at least doesn’t reject the rally’s momentum.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s only significant econ event is the noon hour’s Fed speaker, the chair herself. That should impact price action both in a volatile reaction, and in inhibiting volatility before-hand.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.00 | 2099.00 |
| …would target | 2107.00 | 2105.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2089.25 |
| …would target | 2085.50 | 2083.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Everything AND the kitchen sink.
Nothing but selling pressure since the news. And targets met.
A blip-up to 2106.00 had preceded the Employment Situation report. Its reaction down hesitated at the 2095.50 bias-down signal to form a Descending Triangle. 
Its break down to 2091.25 reacted up to 2098.00 through the open.
And then it was back to business.
The 2088.00 bias-down target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. The renewed bias-down target is 2082.50. And it was just met to within 1 tick.
Business done?
Possibly. After correcting the first reaction up by 61.8%, another bounce is now retesting 2088.00 as resistance. A signal that already triggered below it has yet to be confirmed. Extending higher would have room to test the 2095.50 bias-down signal during the bias-down environment.
That has been this week’s pattern — extending overnight drops post-open, and then recovering intraday. Today is a bit extreme, and the post-open series of lower lows and lower highs (i.e. downtrend) remains intact.
The question to be resolved is whether the Friday Factors of impending two-day illiquidity have exacerbated the initial selling beyond unsustainable levels, or if it will have an even greater effect as the weekend approaches.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Fresh highs were being pierced up to 2106.00 just before the Employment Situation report triggered a plunge to 2091.25. A consolidation formed along the way down, supported by this morning’s 2095.50 bias-down signal. A bounce just tried recovering it, which would be bullish if done through 10:15. Fresh lows in the interim remain possible in even the most bullish scenario. And triggering bias-down can make the balance of the session bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.