Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Holding up. And out.
Filling the gap back to the close, feeling its resistance.
The initial post-open probe under overnight lows has recovered to fill the gap back to yesterday’s 2097.00 close. The 2099.00 bias-up signal wasn’t touched before triggering no-bias, so extending higher will need to be delayed until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.
Overbought RSIs at the recovery high require its eventual retest. The balance of the bias environment may simply hover back down to 2095.00 awaiting that window for extending higher. A deeper reaction has room down to 2093.00 before suggesting anything more substantial underway.
Regardless, extending higher at all today would be vulnerable to extending higher aggressively. Sunday night’s 2103.75 “new Globex trend extreme” requires an eventual intraday retest, and the delay may be compensated by probing well above it. Still not rallying during the final hour would start to look toppy.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 3, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The monthly Employment Situation report isn’t used to sharing the spotlight with so many other econ reports. None have a reliable track record for influencing price action, but their relevance may be heightened if they confirm or contradict the payrolls indication.
Charles Evans Speaks
3:45 AM ET
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.00 | 2099.00 |
| …would target | 2108.25 | 2106.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.25 | 2091.25 |
| …would target | 2086.25 | 2084.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Wash, rinse, repeat.
Another pre-open dip recovers post-open lower lows.
Yesterday’s open was greeted by an overnight slide that then extended deeper to probe under Tuesday’s lows. That test held, recovering through the balance of the morning.
Today’s open was greeted somewhat similarly. The slide was only back down to the overnight low, which wasn’t very deep. But there was post-open follow-through, as a 7-point plunge to 2086.75.
The 2090.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, nor was it rejected, instead still being overlapped for yet another noN-bias environment. No particular bias result is required or in-play.
A buy signal has pushed price back up to its 2093.50 post-open high. Pushing through would be likely to probe above yesterday’s highs. Otherwise, any fresh low could soon probe under yesterday’s low, too.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Despite recovering back to unchanged, overnight action has dipped back down to its earlier 2091.25 low, probing under it to also test this morning’s 2090.75 bias-down signal. Holding its test would put into play an offsetting test of the 2099.75 bias-up signal. Triggering bias-down should still be limited to within yesterday’s range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.