Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Crude oil’s EIA report is delayed a day this week to Thursday, which might enhance its impact on price action. But the pre-open ECB policy statement is the highlight, along with Mario Draghi’s press conference following it. One way, or another, his comments are very reliable for triggering sudden, steep market moves.
ECB Policy Statement
7:30 AM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks
precise time unknown
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Mid-day Update… noN-bias trending makes a comeback.
SPECIAL NOTE: I’m unavailable during today’s noon hour, and will return soon after… until the final hour.
Still touching the 2089.00 bias-down signal at the end of its grace period had triggered noN-bias, removing bias influences from the morning. Meanwhile, probing fresh highs and exiting the bias environment above 2089.00 goes a long way to marginalizing sellers.
The 2089.00 bias-down signal was recovered too late to require an offsetting test of the morning’s 2099.75 bias up signal. But recovering much more is hampered by timing — yesterday afternoon’s rally didn’t gain traction and today’s open didn’t gap up, so actually rallying above yesterday’s high would be suspicious until the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing. The impending 2:00pm Beige Book release might help to inhibit trending meanwhile.
Extending higher appropriately would target new highs, essentially 216.00-2018.00.That said, back under 2089.00 would target fresh session lows, unless the break were recovered before exiting the noon hour.
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.00 | 2097.00 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2103.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2084.50 | 2082.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The overnight drop extended a little post-open to come within 3 ticks of the 2082.50 bias-down target. Its reaction probed the 2089.00 bias-down signal up to 2091.25.
A good effort, but it didn’t last. And it didn’t extend.
Overlapping the 2089.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 invoked the grace period. It was touched again, literally 2 seconds after ending the 10:30 bar. I’m regarding this as a noN-bias — not a bias-down requiring fresh lows, nor a no-bias required to retest overnight highs.
In fact, another surge is attacking the post-open high to within 3 ticks. Back under 2087.50 would target fresh lows. Otherwise, this morning could rally back to unchanged.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip continued bouncing back to this morning’s 2089.00 bias-down signal, even as each interim dip probed lower and lower. Now one last tag of 2089.00 has capitulated to probe under yesterday’s 2086.00 low down to 2084.25.
Now the bullish scenarios can include the potential for sellers expending too much energy to be maintained. Testing or attacking the 2082.50 bias-down target and then not triggering the 2089.00 bias-down signal would be very bullish. Otherwise, much lower lows lie ahead first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.