Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.25 | 2101.00 |
| …would target | 2108.50 | 2106.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2098.25 | 2096.25 |
| …would target | 2093.50 | 2091.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 31, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s PMI is released privately several minutes earlier to its institutional subscribers. Any obvious reaction in the market tends to be repeated when released publicly.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Sunday night’s Globex link
I hope everyone’s Memorial Day weekend is going well…
We may be observing the holiday in the U.S., but Globex opens normally tonight at 6pm ET. It trades through 1:15pm Monday, and re-opens again Monday at 6pm.
CLICK HERE to monitor trading overnight.
I’ll add comments there if anything should be addressed. Tuesday’s bias parameters will be available Monday night. Meanwhile, here’s Friday’s extended post-market Wrap in case you missed it.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Yellen’s comment had triggered a plunge to 2089.75 whose oversold RSIs required a retest. Its retest launched a two-hour rally up to fresh highs. Post-close action barely nicked the lower-end of its potential to 2098.00-2099.00.
All “unfinished business above” is neutralized, but trend extremes rarely occur into or out of holiday weekends. We discussed more of the bigger picture during an expanded post-market Wrap (as there is NO review this weekend).
Please enjoy a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Fire works (plus special announcement).
Knee-jerk reaction held… held again…
REMINDER: Join us in the chaRTroom at 4:03pm ET for the post-market Wrap. It will be extended to cover the bigger picture, since there’s no Saturday Review this weekend.
Shallow ranging off of the 2095.50 high had softened to 2093.25 when Fed Chair Yellen finally said something forward-looking. Apparently, a Fed rate hike in coming months may be appropriate.
MonthS. Not exactly affirming other Fed speakers that had been warming up the audience for June. 
Not contradicting them, either. Probably as dovish as possible given the circumstances.
Suddenly, we knew which of my three scenarios was unfolding: knee-jerk reaction down.
A sell signal triggered under 2092.75 quickly fulfilled its 2090.50 objective, piercing it by 3 ticks while RSIs became simultaneously oversold. Its reaction up touched 2093.50 which was a buy signal — expending literally as much buying pressure as was possible without actually reversing the trend back up. It was faded back down to fulfill the required retest of oversold RSIs at 2089.75.
Now comes the rest of that scenario: recover.
Back above 2092.25 has spiked up to 2094.25. The origin of the Yellen comment’s reaction has been retraced. And it has been probed a little. While that qualifies as a recovery, actually retesting this morning’s 2095.50 high would be optimal.
Meanwhile, there is potential for a new high close today, fulfilling the confirmed breakout’s outstanding requirement. It’s probably not a “new trend high close” which would also require its own subsequent higher close. But trend extremes tend not to develop around holiday weekends.