Posts by Rod David
Replacing Friday’s Wrap… “other markets” video
The video of Friday’s post-close market Wrap is irrecoverable, so I have redone its other markets coverage. Thanks for your patience, and enjoy the weekend!
Saturday Review Link
Friday afternoon’s slide fulfilled the likelier bearish scenario by only probing temporarily into the prior Friday’s range. A plunge to new lows was the less likely bearish scenario, and it can’t be ruled out for Monday. What had been the less likely bearish scenario is now the likelier bearish scenario, and the likelier scenario overall if Monday’s open isn’t rallying.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. Specific levels and behaviors Sunday night and Monday morning will help to anticipate which path the market is following. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2055.25 | 2050.50 |
| …would target | 2060.75 | 2056.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2044.00 | 2039.25 |
| …would target | 2038.75 | 2034.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s slide to 2038.50 fulfilled the likelier bearish scenario by only probing into the prior Friday’s range. A plunge to new lows was the less likely bearish scenario. The opportunity for a short-squeeze signal had long since passed, so the balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher back up to 2044.50. But the dip was recovered back above last Friday’s highs. Closing inside its range without having touched its low requires an almost immediate reaction — regardless of which direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Glory days.
Sizeable intraday swings have returned.
As the week began, I pointed out the signs of equities and Crude Oil no longer being conjoined at the hips. I’ve pointed out two other examples confirming this since then.
A couple of days ago I began pointing out that enhanced intraday volatility seems to be returning. Those are awesome multi-week periods that can produce multiple double-digit trends intraday.
Like today — trending sharply, on a Friday afternoon, while Crude Oil ranges narrowly… the market is not in a ranging state of mind. The noon hour’s 2057.00 sell signal finally violated a bounce limit above 2045.50. Another sell signal was triggered minutes later under 2046.00 and extended down to 2038.50.
As for the balance of today, the likely bearish scenario was only to probe into last Friday’s range. Last Friday’s range has only been probed, so far. RSIs simultaneously diverged positively at the low, and the final hour’s entry was at or above the bias environment’s low.
But it’s well past time for a short-squeeze to have been signaled, so resuming the decline can’t be discounted. But back above 2044.00 would start to suggest a bounce underway, anyway.