Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The prior week’s housing sector reports had no track record of influencing price action. Monday’s Home Sales probably won’t, either. And the subsequent Dallas Fed survey is high-profile, but also isn’t reliable for influencing price action.
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… That which doesn’t kill it?
Bias-down target held as support.
We can’t control the timing of headlines. Or of rumors. Or of whatever it was that triggered this morning’s late break under the 2081.75 bias-down signal — let alone the opening rally’s rejection from 2089.00.
The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:15 to put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s 2092.00 bias-up signal. The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:30 to avoid invalidating what was signaled at 10:15.
That didn’t prevent its break soon after. But if that break were sponsored by strong hands, then it should have been underway already. Alternatively, strong hands would extend that break through the 2075.50 bias-down target through 11:30.
2075.50 was tested, and the test held. So, that wasn’t strong hands sponsoring the morning’s drop to it. The 2092.00 objective now becomes “unfinished business above.” We still can’t control the path there, since oversold RSIs at the low require its retest. But extending down to 2067.00 won’t be done by strong hands, requiring its eventual recovery.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2092.00 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2098.00 | 2092.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.75 | 2074.75 |
| …would target | 2073.00 | 2067.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Going once, going twice, gone?
One test held didn’t prevent later breaking the bias-down signal.
The open blipped down to test the 2081.75 bias-down signal by 1 point. Its reaction up recovered to and through yesterday’s late 2087.50 highs, up to the 2089.00 overnight high.
But no higher. And that has all been reversed. The 2081.75 bias-down signal has been probed down to its 2075.50 bias-down TARGET.
This came after signaling no-bias at 10:15. And it came after holding the bias-down signal’s retest at 10:30. So, this is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced back to the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Even higher, to fulfill the offsetting test of the 2092.00 bias-up signal.
All of that can be rendered moot. Since the 10:15 high was never bettered, exiting the bias environment under the 2075.50 bias-down would not leave any “unfinished business above.”And room to 2067.00 below.
Currently, oversold RSIs at the low are impeding a recovery, while a continuation pattern (Flag) has formed. Currently, there’s still time to neutralize the downside by 11:30 to reinstate the upside. But currently there’s no upside momentum.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery back up to 2087.50 was reversed again. Probing under yesterday afternoon’s lows found support at this morning’s 2081.75 bias-down signal — twice. The interim bounce peaked at 2085.00, so its post-open recovery could begin a bigger recovery. Otherwise, triggering bias-down has only obligatory support from overnight lows to try slowing a deeper drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.