Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Drift.
Probing lower and lower lows.
This morning’s 2093.00 bias-down signal officially triggered late. Recovering it at 10:30 would have invalidated it, but that was missed by 1 tick. And by 1 minute. A bounce tested 2097.50.
But the decline resumed, and this afternoon’s 2089.75 bias-down signal triggered late. Unlike this morning, fresh lows were confirming it at 10:30.
Yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2088.25 has been met. This morning’s 2087.50 bias-down target has been met. And now this afternoon’s 2082.75 bias-down target is in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being Friday morning’s only econ report, the PMI Flash might influence price action despite having a limited track record for that. The afternoon’s Rig Count tends to influence Crude Oil. Passover begins at sundown, so participation may thin out earlier than usual, even for a Friday.
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.50 | 2097.50 |
| …would target | 2109.00 | 2103.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.75 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging deep.
Post-open slide flushes out sellers.
Greeting the open at yesterday’s 2096.25 cash session close was able only to touch 2098.50 resistance. Its reaction down triggered sell signals that extended to 2089.25. Another tick would have neutralized the attraction to yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2088.25.
Meanwhile, the 2093.00 bias-down signal triggered late bias-down. Officially. But that was for the sake of a singe tick, one minute too late. So, don’t dismiss recovery potential — it may be a noN-bias, so trending sponsorship can be strong-handed.
In fact, a 4-point bounce off of 2089.50 was retraced right back down to 2089.25, which launched another bounce. This one has extended to 2097.50. So, unless the bias environment were exited back under the 2093.00 bias-down signal, flat-to-higher ranging is likely.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The knee-jerk reaction to the Philly Fed report surged a little to attack 2102.00. Its reaction down touched yesterday’s late 2095.75 low. There’s further room down to 2093.75 before becoming attracted to yesterday’s unfinished business at 2088.25. Meanwhile, reacting favorably to the post-open econ reports would help to probe yesterday’s highs, albeit only temporarily.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.