Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s dip tested the gap below down to 1.1547 that Wednesday’s rally had sliced through. Buying pressure should be impatient and help to prevent any further weakness.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to 1298.00 wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. More so, it was retraced into negative territory down to 1287.00. The 1283.00 buy signal wasn’t threatened, but likely will be if the pattern isn’t rallying into the weekend.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday became choppier Thursday as early strength was reversed into negative territory. The early attraction to prior highs wasn’t overly optimistic, but rallying further is likely so long as early selling is avoided Friday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower hovering just above 145-08 essentially held Wednesday’s lows. A fresh low can’t be discounted, but it must snap back up and rally strongly to avoid triggering a larger downleg.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Thursday tested 52.70, still having room down to 51.00 to maintain the rally. Othewsise, back under 50.15 would start to signal the trend reversing down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging didn’t seem to exploit Thursday’s inside day, and its own mild pessimism. But any initial strength Friday would likely be credible for extending higher into the weekend.
Mid-day Update… Another shot at upside.
Recovery fills gap, and higher.
The overnight drop was rejected through the open. The morning’s rally didn’t reject it, either. Now the afternoon offers one more chance to reinstate the rally’s upside momentum.
This morning’s 2590.75 bias-down signal was tested this morning, but not recovered in time to invalidate the bias-down rally. So its 2579.00 bias-down signal required a retest for having probed above it during a bias-down environment. That’s now done.
2579.00 was tested by several points, but held this afternoon’s 2577.00 bias-down signal to signal late no-bias. That hasn’t prevented probing under it to 2573.50, which is no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Extending under 2573.50 would start signaling that attractions above were being ignored by a bigger downleg. Otherwise, back above 2579.00 would start to signal the recovery is trying again.
The open missed an opportunity to isolate the overnight dip under yesterday’s lows. This morning missed the opportunity to reject the open’s gap under yesterday’s lows. Not exploiting the failed isolation and rejection setups would give one more opening to a recovery, and to resuming the rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s only econ report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. It’s also probably a no-show due to the government shutdown. Which leaves an unusually empty morning calendar for a Friday — with Monday’s calendar even emptier.
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2590.25 | 2590.75 |
| …would target | 2597.50 | 2598.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2576.75 | 2577.00 |
| …would target | 2570.75 | 2571.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Just an elaborate trap?
Selling not isolated, but possibly temporary.
Opening AT yesterday morning’s 2569.00 low was already not in the spirit of an Isolation setup. 
The door remained open to post-open selling, which attacked the 2560.50 overnight low down to 2562.00. Its recovery was overlapping the 2571.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down target.
But this is still a bias-down environment. Within 5 minutes price had collapsed 8 points. And 5 minutes later the collapse was recovered. Recovered, and soon extended up to the 2579.00 bias-down signal. But this is still a bias-down environment. The bias-down signal’s test as resistance should define the window’s upper-end.
The bias-down signal’s test as resistance includes room for noise up to 2581.00, which is being tested now. Yesterday’s 2582.50 and 2586.25 closes could be tested, too. The 2579.00 bias-down signal must still be retraced, unless the bias environment is exited above its 2590.75 bias-up signal to reject the bias-down. And rejecting the bias-down is the only near-term bullish development possible.