Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.75 | 2078.50 |
| …would target | 2092.00 | 2085.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.25 | 2071.75 |
| …would target | 2073.75 | 2067.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
You know that relatively small trading range since Wednesday that I’ve been referencing? Friday afternoon’s action took place in a relatively smaller range — 5 points — and it was as impressive as any other window.
After probing fresh session lows, the bias environment was exited back above its entry. That is meaningful on any day, much more so on any Friday. On expiration, it fulfills the bullish WedEX signal’s afternoon influence.
And that has implications for WedEX’s influence on Monday morning. Pretty interesting, considering that OPEC is meeting this weekend, and S&Ps and Crude Oil have often trended in unison. But don’t leap to conclusions too quickly, since the bullish WedEX only influences post-open action. Gapping down sharply is still possible, so OPEC members might not reduce output.
We’ll discuss that and more at this weekend’s Saturday Review, stating at 9:30am ET. Look for its link in your overnight email.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Bullish WedEX’d?
Downside momentum absorbed, but not yet reversed.
In Friday, it’s very difficult to reverse from exiting the afternoon’s bias environment beyond all prior intraday timing window extremes. Problematic for a bullish WedEX to absorb, let alone to reverse up.
Today’s bias environment exit narrowly avoided that.
A fresh low had printed 2069.50 just 1 minute away from coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing. That didn’t prevent exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back above an interim high, attacking 2073.00.
That was 25 minutes ago, and the final hour’s entry is just minutes away. Aggressively surging higher would help to confirm the bullish WedEX’s influence — extending to 2074.00, and through 2076.00 during the 3:10-3:20 window would be optimal.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having confirmed Wednesday’s breakout with a second consecutive lower close Thursday, Friday’s gap up created more distance to the eventual third lower close that is now required. But there is no reliable signal for assuring that won’t be interrupted by retesting recent highs first.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday from having stopped optimistically short of filling the 1224.50 gap is premature. Testing and retesting 1234.50 resistance keeps the downward momentum intact, and likely to fill the gap by at least $2.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” wasn’t rejected by gapping up Friday, but probing a fresh high intraday now needs pullbacks to hold 16.25-16.30 to maintain the 16.85 target.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday to and through 165-20 extended intraday to test 166-16. Closing above it would confirm the pullback ended upon testing the 164-12/164-20 extended pullback target to within 1 tick Wednesday.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s dip to the 40.90 sell signal had reacted up only to retrace the rally’s 42.00-42.35 objective. Gapping down to and through it Friday now requires confirmation of a second consecutive lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold 41.20 as resistance.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to last week’s 1.90 low closes doesn’t invalidate Tuesday’s confirmed breakout above 1.95, but momentum would reverse back down if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday, instead of recovering 1.95.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Fed speaker isn’t likely to influence intraday price action because he speaks so long before the open. The post-open report has a limited track record of influencing price action without being a surprise. Meanwhile, the second week of quarterly earnings will be high-profile, like MS before the open, and NFLX after the close.
William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET