Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… New business below.
Unfinished business neutralized, exceeded.
Wednesday morning’s 2044.50 bias-up signal was probed during a no-bias environment. Despite extending up to 2062.00 overnight, the requirement to retest 2044.50 was neutralized this morning.
Yesterday morning’s 10:15 print at 2039.00 didn’t require a test, but it’s often retested after no-bias trending is extended. Its attraction was neutralized this morning, too.
Yesterday morning’s bounce up to 2044.50 had been put into play by holding a test of the morning’s 2035.75 bias-down signal. That happens also to be the noon hour low.
And now fresh lows are probing the noon hour low. And yesterday’s low, and Tuesday’s 2034.25 prior low, to 1 point under 2032.50. That’s this afternoon’s bias-down target.
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under the 2032.50 bias-down target would negate the “no-bias trending” that would otherwise be required to retest the 2038.00 bias-down signal.
Oversold RSIs at 2031.50 would require its retest in case of a bounce. The next lower objectives are 2021.00-2022.00 and potentially 2008.00-2009.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Overnight remarks by Fed speakers have a lower profile and little influence on price action. Thursday evening’s remarks by Fed Chair Yellen may be an exception, coming more than one week after her dovishness had a bullish effect on price action, with an interim glimpse of the FOMC Minutes.
*Janet Yellen Speaks
THU 5:30 PM ET
Esther George Speaks
THU 8:15 PM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2053.75 | 2046.00 |
| …would target | 2059.25 | 2051.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2045.50 | 2038.00 |
| …would target | 2040.25 | 2032.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Coloring back within the lines.
No-bias trending retraced. More consequences on tap?
Gapping open at 2047.00 bounced once to 2050.00 and then to 2051.00. And then their 2045.50 interim low broke lower to and through 2044.50.
2044.50 is this morning’s bias-down target. Probing under it was too late to renew the bias-down signal. This is still a bias-down environment, capable of extending down, and already testing 2041.25.
2044.50 is also “unfinished business below” from yesterday. Its retracement was required, and could include a visit to 2039.00. We’ll expect its test so long as 2044.50 holds as resistance.
Back above 2046.50 would start to suggest this morning’s dip had run its course. Otherwise, the trend remains down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open ranging is persisting between 2047.50-2052.00. Essentially resisted by the 2051.75 bias-down signal, and supported by optimism that is preventing a retest of yesterday afternoon’s 2046.00 low. Recall that this was only “obligatory support,” deeming any bounce off of it as only temporary — whether by 2 ticks, 2 points or 2 hours. Actually testing it should visit the 2044.50 “unfinished business below,” if not also 2039.00. Somehow not triggering bias-down would put into play fresh highs, and probably at an aggressive pace.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.