Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2070.25 | 2062.25 |
| …would target | 2076.00 | 2068.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2061.50 | 2053.50 |
| …would target | 2056.75 | 2048.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Deep enough?
Relatively shallow, for a correction.
During this weekend’s Saturday Review we discussed why the pattern had become vulnerable to a correction. It could last only several hours or several days. But higher objectives had been created, allowing a detour to refuel buyers. Meanwhile, upside momentum had weakened, and objectives below had been left outstanding.
Probing higher overnight didn’t prevent the morning from trending down. Holding the morning’s bias-down signal didn’t prevent probing lower during the afternoon — despite not triggering its bias-down, either.
Not very uncomfortable for a correction.
Probes under each bias-down signal were recovered coming out of the bias environment. But RSIs are oversold at the low, and the bias environment exit was under the noon hour’s low. Entering the final hour under 2054.75 would give sellers traction, targeting 2048.75 and potentially 2041.00.
Now THAT would be a correction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-narrow ranging Monday consolidated at or under the 1.1345 resistance which must hold through the close to continue forming a topping pattern.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s bounce to 1224.50 resistance was retrace Monday back down to 1218.00 support whose break through the close would confirm new relative lows in-play targeting 1188.50-1192.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Failing to recover 15.25 keeps alive the breaks initial target at 14.70, and potentially lower.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Coiling Monday withing Fridays’ range maintained the recovery above the prior Friday’s 164-10 buy signal. Room for a pullback down to 162-20 would is allowed while maintaining the recovery attempt, but its test wouldn’t be optimal after Monday.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s break to the 36.95 sell signal was probed Monday by $1, presumably abandoning any near-term potential for testing the high’s 42.00-42.35 open before trending back down to the lows.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having held a retest of its 1.92 support both Thursday and Friday, Monday’s gap up to the 2.02 highs extended higher immediately to essentially fulfill the longstanding 2.08 objective. Its reaction back down to the prior highs should be only temporary, as the delay has likely refueled buyers for a more substantial rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s ISM is non-manufacturing, and has no reliable track record for influencing prices. That might be different this week, since last week’s other ISM report exceeded estimates. Meanwhile, JOLTS is reliable for influencing price action since it’s a chance to confirm or to contradict last Friday’s payrolls report..
Neel Kashkari Speaks
MON 5:15 PM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
MON 7:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2071.50 | 2063.25 |
| …would target | 2078.75 | 2070.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2065.75 | 2057.75 |
| …would target | 2059.25 | 2051.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.