Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 10, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s claims and trade reports may be delayed due to the government shutdown. But several Fed speakers including the Chair should be sufficient catalysts for influencing price action to remain volatile.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Tom Barkin Speaks
8:35 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
12:45 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:00 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2591.25 | 2592.25 |
| …would target | 2596.75 | 2597.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2592.75 | 2583.50 |
| …would target | 2574.50 | 2575.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dodgeballs.
Gap up navigates tweets and headlines.
The pre-open pullback testing 2575.00 had held above the earlier Globex low to avoid its Flip setup. Attacking 2586.00 before the 2583.00 opening print — both being above yesterday’s highs — had avoided an Isolation setup. Neither bearish setup was forming, so the likelihood for this morning to probe higher remained intact.
None of which will ever be strong enough to prevent tweets and headlines from triggering negative knee-jerk reactions down. But attacking the market at a position of strength is still likely to recover. And sell signals have been pierced only in reaction to news, and then only overlapped. Stretching the rubber band continues to snap back up.
The challenges did prevent exceeding the 2586.50 bias-up target at 10:15 which would have renewed the bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment, free to continue probing above yesterday’s highs this morning, if not also to trend toward the 2606.0 target.
Back under 2582.00 could test the 2577.00 bias-up signal as support, where either the pullback extends even lower, or else snaps back up again.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hugging the high.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday gapped up at 2576.00 above Monday afternoon’s high, after Monday’s closing action had trended down, which formed a session-long rally setup. Which didn’t prevent immediately collapsing 34 points to test Monday’s 2550.50 close down to 2547.50. The balance of the session trended back up, each timing window probing the prior window’s high, leaving the morning’s bias environment as the one exception. The open’s 2576.00 gap up was probed by 1 point at the late high before dipping 2-3 points into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late pullback extended slightly lower to 2568.50 and quickly reversed back up. Soon probing fresh highs, the recovery extended to test 2587.00 and ranged sideways through midnight. An eventual dip greeted Europe’s opens at 2575.50, back under yesterday’s late 2577.00 high. A 10-point bounce to 2585.50 has been retraced back under yesterday’s late high again to 2576.00. Overnight dips back under yesterday’s late 2577.00 high have come from probing above the open’s 2581.00 high. So far, overnight action has essentially fluctuated around yesterday’s highs.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Overnight fluctuation around yesterday’s highs hasn’t extended, nor has it been rejected. And the overnight high is not a trend extreme we can rely on being retested intraday. But if it hasn’t created a vacuum that attracts the open up into it, then a weaker open would be vulnerable to forming a bearish Isolation setup, or even a Globex-flip. To the degree that Tuesday’s intraday recovery was a successful session-long rally, then fresh highs should be probed this morning. But there’s no other unfinished business above, so the overnight probes would suffice if the open forms a reversal setup. The overnight high even peaked upon testing this morning’s bias-up signal’s target. Meanwhile, closing yesterday above the 2548.00-2555.00 range has put into play 2606.00, subject to confirmation of a second consecutive higher close, or to being invalidated by closing back under 2548.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2580.50 would be likely to trigger the 2577.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2572.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2576.50 | 2577.00 |
| …would target | 2586.00 | 2586.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2568.75 | 2569.25 |
| …would target | 2561.00 | 2561.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.