Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up to fresh highs Thursday created a new piece of “unfinished business above” at the session open, which will want to be tested from below before a top can fully form. Closing above 1.1435 could avoid topping, if probed aggressively.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held a test of the 1218.00-1224.50 range’s upper-end at Wednesday’s pullback low, bouncing again Thursday could qualify as another recovery effort by closing above Tuesday’s 1242.00 high.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up through Monday’s 15.38 high and extending its recovery suggests a bounce targeting 15.88 is underway, so long as Friday closes higher, too.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip to test 163-16 support held through Thursday and firmed intraday, testing Friday’s 164-10 high whose break would restart the recovery.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The retest of last week’s lows held for a second consecutive session Thursday, while firming back up to 39.05 resistance, whose recovery would position the pattern for also triggering the 39.55 buy signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentarily printing a fresh high at Thursday’s open improved the position of strength greeting the morning’s EIA report, but it didn’t prevent reacting down anyway to 1.93 support. Now closing above 1.99 would resume the rally targeting 2.07.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monthly payrolls are usually reported in a vacuum, not with any other econ reports, so this month’s report may trigger a more volatile response. Meanwhile, the reaction to post-open econ reports often duplicates the reaction to pre-open reports. There are three other post-open reports, and one already has a track record for influencing price action.
William Dudley Speaks
THU 5:00 PM ET
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2069.00 | 2060.50 |
| …would target | 2074.25 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2061.75 | 2053.50 |
| …would target | 2056.50 | 2048.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Spinning wheels.
The market has become stuck in Alabama mud.
From the movie “My Cousin Vinny” we learn that anyone who’s been stuck in Alabama mud knows your car needs a limited slip differential to extricate itself. Step on the gas, and one tire spins while the other does nothing.
This assumed only one tire is in the mud. This morning’s price action has both buyers and sellers stuck, ranging choppily around 2056.00. Both tires are spinning wildly, without gaining traction either way.
The first hour’s first three 15-minute checkpoints overlapped 2056.00. That had already warned us trending this morning would be difficult or unlikely. There are five 15-minute checkpoints, including the open and the one-hour mark. with only one not overlapping 2056.00. And, then, only barely.
Today’s most bullish scenario was likely to be backing-and-filling, expressing pessimism ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. Walking gingerly on eggshells can be another option for pre-news price action. It offers limited trading opportunities, except waiting for an extreme to fade. Be careful not to force a trade.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction up from overnight lows has stalled around 2056.00, ranging 1-2 points around it ahead of the open. Not reversing back down almost immediately post-open could probe temporarily above yesterday’s highs. Otherwise, a post-open repeat of the overnight drop to 2047.25 would be repeated, targeting even lower if the bias-down signal is triggered.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.