Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2050.00 | 2040.25 |
| …would target | 2055.25 | 2045.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2042.50 | 2033.00 |
| …would target | 2028.50 | 2027.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Briefly paying respects.
Post-open dip is reversed up.
Regardless of having no durable effect on price action, there’s usually a near-term reverence for events like Belgium’s. So, firming post-open up to 2035.00 was retraced to the 2030.50 pre-open low.
And that was it. At least, so far.
The post-open dip’s reaction has recovered back up to 2039.00. This area is critical, and would have produced a deep drop if tested immediately post-open. Testing it after dipping already could extend.
That would also help to confirm this morning’s no-bias signal. The 2035.75 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Fresh post-open highs at 10:30 would help to confirm an offsetting test of the 2045.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open action has continued narrowing around this morning’s 2936.75 bias-down signal. Peaks have been lower and lower, forming a Descending Triangle that suggests extending lower. Even if we were 100% certain of recovering from the overnight dip, reactions to events such as in Belgium still often take an intraday dip to process and absorb. Bouncing immediately post-open would be likely to fail.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Overnight attacks, intraday test.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s initial dip to 2031.00 had recovered by surging to a fresh high at 2044.25. A pre-open dip’s recovery was stopped short at the 2041.50 bias-up signal’ resistance. Its reaction down stopped several ticks short of fulfilling an offsetting test of the 2030.75 bias-down signal before recovering back up to the pre-open high at 2044.50. The higher close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Friday’s new trend high close. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2030.75 bias-down signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging back up to the highs at 2044.75 had been corrected once down to 2038.25. Or, was its reaction up to 2042.75 a correction of the drop to 2038.25? We may never know, or we won’t know for awhile, as the tragedy of terrorist attacks in Belgium triggered a plunge to within 1 tick of what is this morning’s 2028.50 bias-down target. Its reaction up to 2040.25 was retraced, and a couple more reactions have narrowed around what is this morning’s 2035.75 bias-down signal.
If, then…
Three important points about yesterday’s close. First, it left no “unfinished business above.” All setups requiring an eventual higher close had been satisfied — interestingly, without delay that could have refueled the rally. Second, the choppy, two-day sideways range at trend highs, reflected no shortage of opinion, and also reflected no sponsorship gaining traction for expressing it. Third is the attraction to “unfinished business below.” The combination makes the market vulnerable to a drop, perhaps also to reversing down, but does not predict either. In fact, a durable top would tend to try rallying intraday out of the two-day range before failing. So, it will be very informative whether the reaction to last night’s terrorist attacks is absorbed by recovering its overnight probe lower, as have the two prior night’s dips. The bullish version of a drop would begin by gapping down to create new “unfinished business above” as an anchor requiring an eventual retest.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2039.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2035.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2032.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2054.75 | 2045.00 |
| …would target | 2064.75 | 2055.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2046.25 | 2035.75 |
| …would target | 2038.25 | 2028.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.