Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1994.75 | 1993.25 |
| …would target | 2001.75 | 2000.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1985.50 | 1984.00 |
| …would target | 1979.25 | 1977.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… On, or off?
Pre-open slide extends through the open, and then not.
Reacting down from the 1994.00 overnight high greeted the open at 1987.50. Extending down choppily post-open tested 1982.00. That fully retraced to where the overnight consolidation had first broken higher.
This morning’s 1986.00 bias-up signal failed to trigger. A blip-up attacked it to within 1 tick at 10:15, but it wasn’t touched. A bigger blip-up overlapped it at 10:30, but that was retraced. An offsetting test of the 1977.00 bias-down signal is in-play.
Meanwhile, a jump in Crude Oil triggered a bigger surge to 1991.00. That’s above the bias-up signal during a no-bias environment. It is “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure. And it potentially stretches the rubber band for a more substantial drop.
A more substantial drop remains in-play with the topping template, whose timing suggests a much deeper and steeper drop this morning. Not declining would not be optimal, but only rallying can invalidate the vulnerability to extending down further.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Rallying overnight back to yesterday afternoon’s 1993.00 highs had briefly probed them up to 1994.00. That has reacted back down to 1987.50, diminishing the threat of gapping up high enough to trigger a session-long rally. That’s not the only bullish setup. There’s still a bias-up signal at 1986.00, which may not be as forceful and productive, but its direction would still contradict the topping template’s timing.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… One more hurdle.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s drop to 1981.00 was partially recovered up to 1994.00 before Tuesday’s open. Tuesday’s opening drop to 1977.50 was recovered to 1993.00 into the afternoon. Tuesday afternoon’s drop retested the morning’s low down to 1976.00, too late to recover. No downleg was so aggressive that it could be considered as reversing the trend down.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last drop had firmed to 1983.00 into the close. Consolidating there through midnight eventually broke higher to 1986.00. After retracing the breakout to retest the consolidation range, its recovery has tested 1991.50, and retested it while RSIs diverge negatively.
If, then…
The topping template all but requires the trend reversal to be obvious no later than Wednesday morning. Retracing yesterday afternoon’s drop from 1993.00 doesn’t necessarily contradict the topping template — until the entire drop is recovered pre-open. Gapping up above the downleg’s 1993.00 origin could form a “session-long rally,” and its timing would prevent trending down this morning. Rejecting the gap up through the open would maintain the topping template, and its likely morning decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1988.00 would be likely to trigger the 1986.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1994.50 would be likely also to renew the bias-up signal by exceeding its 1993.25 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open back under 1984.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1988.25 | 1986.00 |
| …would target | 1995.25 | 1993.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1979.00 | 1977.00 |
| …would target | 197.00 | 1971.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.