Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1993.25 | 1991.00 |
| …would target | 1999.75 | 1997.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1982.50 | 1980.25 |
| …would target | 1977.00 | 1974.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Here’s your hat, what’s your hurry?
Shallow bounce resolves in fresh lows.
We’ve been tracking a potential topping pattern, and its final optimal condition is being challenged.
Rather than bounce throughout this morning, to whatever degree, the bias environment is probing lower and lower lows. In fact, the 1991.00 bias-down signal was renewed by exceeding the 1985.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Already 1979.00 has been tested. Twice.
Exiting the bias environment and entering the noon hour back above the bias-down parameters would undermine the topping. So would rallying this afternoon instead of declining.
Otherwise, while the impatience might reflect weak-handed sellers, the trend change may be affected only in its timing.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop to 1980.75 had bounced back already up to 1994.00. Ranging there back down to 1988.00 is persisting pre-open. The bounce could extend post-open, too — even probing fresh highs up to 2009.00. But not bouncing anymore at all, and just resuming the overnight slide, would be credible if maintained through the bias environment exit.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Moments of truth.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s price tracked perfectly with the topping pattern described during the Saturday Review. Gapping down shallowly and recovering into positive territory, then closing only slightly positive. No higher objective was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Only downtrending has defined price action since yesterday’s close. Soon sliding 12 points back down to attack Monday’s 1988.25 afternoon low, then resolving a shallow bounce to fresh lows to 1980.75. Perhaps it was only a “warning shot across the bow,” as a bounce back up to yesterday’s 1986.00 low has surged further up to 1994.00.
If, then…
The topping patterns isn’t just optimal — it’s perfect. That always makes me suspicious, but I’ll give it a benefit of the doubt until proved otherwise. The actual capitulation — the sudden exponentially growing mass realization that the music has stopped — should not become obvious until Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. Last night’s fresh low under Friday and Monday’s lows is acceptable as a warning shot, and should be followed by one last gasp up into the range. Already trending down this morning would still get that benefit of the doubt, and also a dose of suspicion. Regardless, only a strong rally would start to disqualify the topping pattern.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1984.00 would be likely also to trigger the 1985.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1988.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2005.00 | 2002.50 |
| …would target | 2011.25 | 2009.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1993.25 | 1991.00 |
| …would target | 1987.50 | 1985.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.