Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 3, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being payrolls week, Jobless Claims and a couple of other jobs reports have some potential to influence price action. And there being recent improvement in econ reports, Thursday’s several industrial reports should have greater influence over price action.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1982.75 | 1980.50 |
| …would target | 1989.50 | 1987.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1973.00 | 1971.00 |
| …would target | 1968.25 | 1966.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Mid-day Update… Traction sorely missed.
Still under pressure without sponsorship.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Some instability in the chaRTroom caused some attendees to lose connections. Please let me know if you were affected to help isolate the issue’s cause… thank you.
This morning’s no-bias environment triggered without touching either bias signal. If touched later, either bias signal would be required to define that end of the range.
Bouncing to within 2 ticks of the 1977.00 bias-up signal was reversed to within 1 tick of the 1966.00 bias-down signal. Recovering that to a fresh high consolidated around the 1977.00 bias-up signal up to 1978.75.
Now the no-bias environment has lapsed. The bias signals need not define the range. But there’s still no requirement to trend beyond either end of the 1966.00–1977.00 range.
Back under 1973.75 (being tested now) would target a retest of this morning’s lows, and back above 1977.00 could extend to retest overnight highs. Still, neither resolution is required, and trending again today could be difficult until after the afternoon bias environment.
Post-open Review… Stuck in an eddy.
Recovery attempts resisted by yesterday’s close.
Opening at the 1971.00 attraction firmed to within 3 ticks of yesterday’s 1975.50 cash session close. Its reaction stretched the rubber band to attack 1968.00, and snapped back up to 1 point above yesterday’s 1975.50 cash session close.
The 1977.00 bias-up signal wasn’t triggered, only attacked to within 2 ticks. The next reaction attacked the 1966.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick.
Being a no-bias environment, the bias signals should define either end of its range. Back above 1971.00 (being tested now) would suggest a retest of the range’s upper-end, which could extend higher as the bias environment starts lapsing. Similarly, breaking lower immediately wouldn’t be credible.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open action continues to hover around 1971.00. That’s enough to further suggest upside momentum is struggling, but not so much as to prevent retesting the 1984.50 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.”
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.