Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Got there.
Attacking Friday’s pre-open high.
Testing and holding the 1946.00 bias-up target through 10:15 often identifies the morning’s peak. Not always. It’s still a bias-up environment, so not renewing the signal doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway.
And extending higher was likely. In fact, the 1951.00 renewed bias-up target was exceeded back to yesterday’s 1956.00 high, and a pullback there resolved up to attack Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high.
Stopping 3 ticks short of touching 1968.75 is pessimistically short. That’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, which keeps alive the upside. The next higher objective is not very far above at 1971.00 (+/-, probably +).
The base that launched this morning’s rally may be more productive than yesterday’s. But it’s no more durable. This afternoon remains as vulnerable as yesterday to trending back down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s monthly payrolls week. So it’s also time for ADP’s report, which is reliable for generating a market reaction. Often, that reaction is duplicated by post-open econ reports. Not usual for payrolls week is this afternoon’s scheduled Beige Book release, which is also very reliable for generating a market reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1968.50 | 1966.00 |
| …would target | 1973.50 | 1971.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1961.25 | 1958.75 |
| …would target | 1955.50 | 1953.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Late is the new timely.
Delayed recovery of resistance nevertheless extends higher.
Recovering (or not) 1943.00 through the open could have been predictive of the morning. It was tested and probed pre-open. The open pierced it only momentarily. And then a reaction down tested 1938.50.
And retested it. Meanwhile, 1943.00 wasn’t recovered through the open. But was testing and retesting 1938.50 a sufficient offset?
We discussed that question in the chaRTroom while leaving the door open to a buy signal. It triggered above 1943.75. Bias-up triggered easily, and despite holding the 1946.00 bias-up target’s test through 10:15, a surge just touched yesterday morning’s 1956.00 high.
Reversing down from here would leave no “unfinished business above” to prevent extending a downleg. Reversing down from here would be signaled by exiting the morning’s bias environment back under its 1946.00 bias-up target.
Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 1951.00. Not reversing down would be likely to accomplish what yesterday morning’s late weak-handed rally did not — retesting Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open action continues to fluctuate around 1943.00, whose recovery (or not) through the open should be predictive of the balance of the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.