Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down from last week’s 1.1385 high was extended coming out of the weekend down to 1.1133. The high formed an Island, which would be retested upon recovering 1.1270.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The holiday weekend was exited by reacting back down to 1191.50 that had preceded last week’s blow-off to 1264.00. Closing back above 1222.50 would target the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1240.00 open.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having held 15.80 resistance at Friday’s close, the reaction extended down to 15.15 coming out of the weekend. Tuesday consolidated the drop but left no new signal.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still lacking a catalyst for flight-to-safety, breaking under 167-18 support quickly extended to test last week’s “lower prior highs” at 166-10 and lower to 165-02. Any lower would trigger a much deeper decline — which suggests that this support’s test will launch a recovery back to Thursday’s 170-00 gap up.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming out of the weekend and surging early Tuesday up to 31.53 reversed back down back to 28.80, and closing any lower would target a retest of 26.40 down to 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although the reaction to Thursday’s EIA report had already filled the gap back to its prior week’s 1.97 low close, and Friday didn’t extend lower, coming out of the holiday did break lower to 1.88.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1896.25 | 1892.25 |
| …would target | 1901.25 | 1897.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1885.75 | 1882.00 |
| …would target | 1879.50 | 1875.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Mid-day Update… Onward and upward?
Post-open dip recovered and reversed.
Nothing about the opening dips suggested that their sponsorship was strong-handed. That doesn’t prevent dipping, but the recovery tends to be aggressive. And it was.
Testing this morning’s 1871.50 pullback limit launched a reversal that probed fresh session highs at 1887.00 going into the noon hour. That was extended up to 1891.50 coming out off the noon hour.
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above 1891.50 would essentially marginalize sellers for the day. Fresh highs targeting 1907.00 and potentially 1920.00 would be in-play.
Back under 1886.00 would start to signal no further upside for today, and potentially a slide to the 1873.00 area.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any reaction to Wednesday’s pre-open PPI is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s subsequent reports. But price action should react strongly to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, which will reveal how narrowly another rate hike was avoided.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1887.75 | 1883.75 |
| …would target | 1893.75 | 1890.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1882.25 | 1878.50 |
| …would target | 1876.75 | 1872.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.