Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Fed speaker is not a wholly unknown quantity, but enough so to make the market more likely to react. The pre-ope Fed survey has no track record for influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Globex link to the chaRTroom
Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points to 1865.00 and extended 15 more to 1880.00. Click here to view Globex action which trades through 1:00pm ET Monday,
The Universe, week of February 15, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Last week the broader market returned back down to its prior lows. That wasn’t generally helpful to the more hopeful stocks that depend on speculative excess to avoid their ranges’ lower-ends, let alone to maintain an uptrend. Nevertheless, the percentage of stocks above their shorter-term moving averages last week did improve by one.
It’s not enough to qualify as a trend. It didn’t even feel like the start of a trend since no other signals were triggered. And more stocks than recently did test or probe their ranges’ lower-ends by enough to justify recalculating them lower. But something new to the upside does need to begin soon to avoid a wider downleg, since narrow improvements can have a rubber band effect if their enthusiasm doesn’t spread.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for February 15, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 6 | 7.23% |
| trends* | # flat: | 20 | 24.10% |
| # down: | 57 | 68.67% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.003 | 0.007 | flat |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | flat |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | down |
| CARA | 5.350 | 9.090 | down |
| CBDS | 0.070 | 0.600 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.002 | 0.004 | down |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.117 | 0.205 | down |
| GRNH | 0.026 | 0.042 | flat |
| GWPH | 44.650 | 58.800 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 12.000 | 22.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | up |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.110 | down |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.040 | flat |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | down |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | down |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.016 | 0.036 | down |
| PLPL | 0.026 | 0.069 | down |
| PMCB | 0.064 | 0.091 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.005 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.014 | 0.033 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | up |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.070 | 0.100 | flat |
| STEV | 0.005 | 0.024 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1864.50 | 1860.00 |
| …would target | 1871.25 | 1867.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1854.25 | 1850.00 |
| …would target | 1848.00 | 1843.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Exiting the afternoon bias environment above all prior intraday timing window highs is extremely difficult to reverse down on Fridays. And it often extends even higher. That was the case this week, as bounce targets into the 1860.00‘s began to be met.
That’s a Friday Factor, but so is the lack of credibility for actually extending higher. Weaker volume means weaker hands, so their gaining traction isn’t impressive as it would be on any other weekday. If anything, it suggests that sellers are being extra patient, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
An immediate reversal down next week would be credible, but not much and not at all optimal — not like first testing 1867.00. Its recovery would suggest only a higher starting point to the decline’s eventual resumption.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.