Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1854.00 | 1848.25 |
| …would target | 1859.25 | 1853.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1840.255 | 1834.50 |
| …would target | 1835.00 | 1829.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Locked-in tight.
Pre-open slide is retraced post-open.
I described during the pre-market Tour how neutralizing an attraction can allow price to react in the opposite direction. It had happened overnight when overbought RSIs at yesterday’s 1855.00 high was retested overnight, sending price back down.
One condition usually isn’t sufficient. So, retesting overbought RSIs extended to also test the resistance of this morning’s 1856.50 bias-up target.
Then price reacted down.
And down. This morning’s open was greeted with already having retraced yesterday’s weak-handed rally, back to its origin. That attraction below had been neutralized. The open’s blip-down also touched the 1825.75 support that had attracted yesterday’s decline.
Then price reacted up.
And up. While we’re not expecting yesterday’s rally to resume — it originated so late that its sponsorship must have been weak-handed — there was still room to rally back to the range’s highs.
In fact, the overnight high was touched. It reacted down soon enough to avoid triggering bias-up (the grace period was invoked, and late no bias was triggered). Now the 1840.00 bias-down signal is being tested as support.
Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under the 1834.50 bias-down target would start to suggest the decline is resuming — whether or not today.
Corrected link to pre-market Tour recording.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight reaction down from testing the 1856.50 bias-up target has extended down to the 1832.00 overnight low and through it to 1827.25. That essentially retraces yesterday afternoon’s entire rally, which had originated too late to have been sponsored by strong hands. But now its attraction below is neutralized, so extending down post-open isn’t as assured.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Detour done.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Once again, gapping down to new relative lows, and trending down sharply intraday to 1821.75, were somewhat rescued by an afternoon surge back through the open’s highs. Monday afternoon’s rally started too late to be the product of strong hands, and negative territory was maintained, but overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the 1855.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s closing dip to 1844.00 was retraced almost entirely into the futures close. Then it was extended much deeper overnight to 1832.00. Surging into and out of Europe’s open’s attacked Monday’s late 1855.00 high, and later probed it up to this morning’s 1856.50 bias-up signal.. Both reacted down to test 1840.00, currently down to 1837.50.
If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction for yesterday afternoon’s late rally, so extending higher this morning all but requires gapping up. The complete recovery overnight reflects an ability to extend higher, so probing higher without gapping up is possible — especially if opening above 1846.00 — albeit doomed to later reversal. Trending down through the open would target a retest of yesterday’s lows, and possibly resume the decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 1854.00 would be likely to trigger the 1850.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1846.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1836.75 would be likely to trigger the 1840.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.