Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Bounce time, or bottom?
Bouncing into the noon hour lacks isn’t terribly credible.
The 1925.75 objective was attacked to within 1 point at this morning’s lows. That’s 1 tick further away than would qualify as being satisfied.
3-minute RSI was on the cusp of being oversold, and 1-minute RSI was at least a little oversold, so retesting the low can’t be discounted.
An 8-point bounce fell back to almost touch the low, but now a 10-point bounce into the noon hour is touching this afternoon’s 1840.00 bias-up signal. The bias-up target is still well into negative territory. And nothing requires the low to hold a retest.
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1846.00 | 1840.00 |
| …would target | 1851.75 | 1846.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1832.50 | 1826.75 |
| …would target | 1823.75 | 1817.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Rulers of attraction.
Sellers gain reinforcements to push price lower.
Gapping down to the 1848.00-1849.00 area firmed only momentarily before diving to fresh lows at 1841.00. Another bounce probed the 1848.00-1849.00 area before resolving down again.
Eventually, fresh lows attacked 1833.00.
Now a bounce to 1843.00-1844.00 is trying to extend its recovery. It wants to extend. Recovering here could exit the bias environment with the objective of testing Friday’s range.
That reward would have been much more reliable if triggered a half-hour ago. Now a recovery is unlikely before extending down to 1825.75. So, bouncing any higher here would still encounter the 1848.00-1849.00 area’s resistance before further downside can be dismissed.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The earlier drop to 1845.00 launched a bounce back up to 1856.50. Any higher through the opening 15 minutes would be likely to trend higher this morning. Its resistance already pushed price back down to a fresh low under 1844.00. But the open is being greeted within this leg’s cluster of targeted support around 1848.00-1849.00. Any lower through the opening 15 minutes would be likely to trend down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.*
(This morning is the last chance for the new recording software to have fixed its video delay issue.)
The First Trade… Wake-up call.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down 9 points from 1910.00 in reaction to Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report only worsened throughout the day. The net effect was to revisit the recent range’s lower-end around 1865.00. Only one week earlier, probing above the same range’s upper-end had triggered a breakout, which wasn’t confirmed on Monday. Sellers gained no traction for their effort, despite the afternoon probing fresh session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s firm open extended higher to attack 1884.00. Dropping to 1877.00 was recovered to probe 1884.00, only to drop back down to 1877.00. One more bounce was the final bounce, suddenly plunging 39 points to attack 1845.00.
If, then…
Stopping optimistically shot of prior lows Friday didn’t resolve down immediately. Gapping down may not extend immediately. If The earlier hesitation and the overnight bounce suggest that gapping down could attract more optimism. The next lower relevant support is at 1849.00, now being tested, and its disposition through the open could define the morning’s trend.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1856.50 would be likely also to test the 1862.75 bias-down target as resistance. Exiting the open under 1848.00 would be likely to extend down through the bias environment.