Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
Another opening dip is recovered.
This morning’s 1891.50 bias-down target had been probed pre-open by 5 ticks. Bouncing into and out of the open touched the 1908.00 bias-up signal and reversed down sharply 14 points. It took a while longer and a couple of econ reports, but the 10:15 bias timing window had surged back above the 1908.00 bias-up signal.
In fact, the 1913.00 bias-up target was being probed at 10:15, by just enough to renew the bias-up signal. That has extended to touch 1917.75.
Traction gained by yesterday afternoon’s buyers was not rejected, so it should still be rewarded by probing higher through the morning. I won’t otherwise consider a sell signal that is above the 1908.00 bias-up signal.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
PLEASE REPORT TO ME ANY YOUTUBE PLAYBACK ISSUES, THANK YOU!
The reaction down from 1922.25 overnight highs extended down to this morning’s 1908.00 bias-up signal. And through that to this morning’s 1898.50 bias-down signal, and through that to probe the 1891.50 bias-down target by 1 point.
A bounce is now testing the bias-down signal as resistance. Recovering it through 10:15 would be bullish, putting into play an offsetting test of at least the bias-up signal. Otherwise, the bias-down target might be the last line of defense for avoiding a retest of yesterday’s lows, targeting 1862.75.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Hanging on for dear life.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s intraday pattern matched the overnight action by recovering from a plunge. The overnight reversal had come from testing 1886.00 to attack 1911.00. Intraday action bettered that after plunging to 1865.00 and recovering up to 1912.00. And the afternoon buyers gained traction for their effort, despite leaving oversold RSIs outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
After recovering Wednesday’s last-minute closing dip, China’s strength triggered a surge to fresh highs testing 1922.00. Hovering there ahead of Europe’s opens was reversed down to 1908.75 — natural support shared by yesterday’s open and close. Now a bounce to 1919.50 has been retraced entirely.
If, then…
I had mentioned at the start of yesterday’s late rally that upside potential begins at 1924.00. Higher highs overnight attacked that to within 2 points. That’s a little too short of the next objective to qualify as reward for the traction gained by yesterday afternoon’s buyers. Probing higher highs this morning remains likely so long as its reaction down holds the support of “lower prior highs.” And that’s being challenged now. But there’s still room to the bias-down signal before suggesting the decline was resuming.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1902.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1908.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1914.50 would be likely to hold above the 1913.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1915.00 | 1908.00 |
| …would target | 1920.00 | 1913.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1905.50 | 1898.50 |
| …would target | 1898.50 | 1891.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 1865.00 low require an eventual retest. Competing against that is the afternoon’s rally having gained traction. Unless inverted or otherwise invalidated, Thursday morning is likely to probe fresh highs before being vulnerable to resuming the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
When intraday access lapses, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.