Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 15-point pullback to 1893.75 has recovered to probe the 1908.75 high, to within 1 tick of the 1910.75 bias-up target. Now extending the overnight rally through this morning depends even more on extending higher through the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1911.50 | 1904.50 |
| …would target | 1917.75 | 1910.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1897.75 | 1890.75 |
| …would target | 1892.50 | 1885.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade… Everyone’s a winner.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Tuesday under Monday’s lows inverted the traction gained by Monday’s late buyers. The lowest objective was met under 1890.00, triggering a sharp reversal up to attack the 1900.00 resistance. Potential was left outstanding to 1886.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The slide resumed and soon tested the outstanding 1886.00 objective by 2 ticks. And held. Tuesday’s 1895.00 cash session close was recovered by midnight. Rallying through Europe’s opens attacked 1909.00. Now a pullback to 1894.00 is trying to recover.
If, then…
Another example of the market satisfying all influences, no matter their divergence. I described the two currently relevant influences in yesterday’s post-market Wrap. First, yesterday’s last bounce had stopped pessimistically short of testing its last relative high, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Second, that bounce had originated from only piercing the decline’s target range — the slide had stopped optimistically short of probing the entire objective, which is potentially bearish. Overnight action satisfied both. So, is momentum reversing up, or has the overnight recovery only traded one prior high’s resistance for another (1911.00 from yesterday morning’s bias environment). I would tend to be bullish here since testing the decline’s objective was responsive both yesterday and overnight. So long as the open doesn’t hold a relevant prior’s test, the window is open for a rally. Otherwise, retesting overnight lows could find no support remains.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1901.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1904.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1906.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s probe under 1890.00 proved deep enough. For Tuesday. Having stopped short of recovering the last downleg’s 1899.00-1900.00 origin, the late bounce was not sponsored by strong hands.
The last downleg’s 1899.00-1900.00 origin wasn’t even touched during the late bounce. That’s pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Wednesday’s first trending attempt is vulnerable to being a false break that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction — especially if the first break is being reversed already during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Uncle?
Targets being tested.
Maintaining the decline had potential to test 1886.00. Just probing under 1890.00 could have started ending the slide, especially considering the timing.
1890.00 was probed by 1 points during the 3:10-3:20 timing window. That doesn’t make one outcome likelier than another. But the probe had retraced back above prior highs when the window closed.
Fresh lows would have resumed the decline. They were attacked, but that has reacted up to 1897.00. It’s too late for a short-squeeze to be signaled, but gravitating higher into the close is now likely.