Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1889.00 | 1882.00 |
| …would target | 1894.50 | 1887.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1875.25 | 1868.25 |
| …would target | 1869.75 | 1862.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s last half-hour repeatedly overapped 1873.00-1874.75. This was the next lower objective under 1881.00. Its test was probed momentarily down to 1865.00 but that snapped back up to 1873.00-1874.75. Ranging around it encompassed 1969.00-1978.00.
All of that ranging, for all of the final hour. Without closing lower. No lower objective was put into play, so no lower lows are required, so rallying overnight into a Thursday morning rally is possible.
But rallying overnight is the only path to a Thursday morning rally, since Wednesday afternoon’s drop gained traction for its efforts. Rallying just a little to 1882.00 and 1887.50 could still resolve down Thursday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Short-changed.
Fresh highs retraced and reversed.
This morning’s surge into the noon hour had violated pullback limits upon testing 1906.50 and 1910.00. That was likely to end the rally until the FOMC statement.
A pullback to 1898.50 had cleared room for a knee-jerk reaction up on the FOMC news. That only attacked 1910.00 to within 1-2 points before reversing back down as abruptly. And more aggressively.
Sliding to 1865.00 has found support back up to 1877.00. And that could bounce to 1882.00 — unless tentative support at 1869.25 gives way to 1859.50.
Sellers gained traction, so avoiding lower lows tomorrow morning would require trending back up sharply overnight. The nearest higher objective would remain 1913.00. Regardless of whether 1910.00 comes close enough, it is very shallow compared to the recent range.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test the 1.0900 bounce limit didn’t take off the table a deeper dip to 1.0750. But recovering from an intraday dip does require sellers to be obviously in control Thursday morning to avoid launching a rally leg.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s attack on 1122.00 wasn’t repeated Wednesday. And the breakout wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. But the 1114.00 pullback limit wasn’t threatened, so higher highs remain likely.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not rejecting Tuesday’s breakout keeps alive the likelihood for extending higher, albeit without any higher requirement being in-play.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s dip was premature for launching a downleg, so Wednesday’s weakness was absorbed and a retest of 160-20/160-28 remains likely.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday held 30.45-30.95 as support before recovering into positive territory above Friday’s 32.40 prior highs. The next higher objective is 34.80.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling forward to Mar contract]. Probing slightly higher overnight and at the open did not extend higher intraday. EIA is reporting Thursday but is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Position of strengthiness.
Surging into the noon hour ahead of the news.
When this morning’s bias environment was finally in view of lapsing, its 1987.50 bias-down signal finally stopped restraining a recovery. Its break extended up through prior highs to test 1910.00 into the noon hour.
A pullback to the 1900.00 prior highs has prevented triggering the 1905.50 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 1905.50 through 1:30 would invalidate the no-bias. Probing above it later would be required to retrace.
Meanwhile, the FOMC policy statement is a half-hour away. Volatility is likely to explode in reaction. Testing 1913.00 before reversing down would be likelier than simply trending down, while trending up through 1913.00 to 1924.00 is possible.