Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1902.50 | 1895.50 |
| …would target | 1909.00 | 1902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1891.00 | 1884.00 |
| …would target | 1885.50 | 1878.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Brought.
Doubly-renewed bias-up.
The open’s blip-up immediately pierced 1881.00. It was soon exceeded to attack 1886.00. Still it reacted down to 1874.50.
The opening rally’s post-open reaction down still recovered up to 1892.25. The 1876.50 bias-up signal was renewed above its 1882.25 bias-up target AND doubly-renewed above its 1887.50 renewed bias-up target at 10:15.
All of which is testing 1891.50, which remains a critical retracement of yesterday afternoon’s drop, as it was at the time. And RSIs just diverged negatively into its test.
That’s not a sell signal, but it does signal vulnerability to at least a corrective dip with potential down to 1884.00. Back under 1888.00 would suggest the dip is underway.
Extending above 1891.50 — and not just overlapping it — might find obligatory resistance at yesterday’s 1895.00 highs. But just extending above 1891.50 would already suggest the rally to 1915.00-1920.00 remains intact.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A Head & Shoulders reversal pattern formed upon the recovery’s earlier attack on 1880.00. Its reaction down fulfilled a 61.8% projection to test 1870.00. Then the reaction down was recovered entirely, as Head & Shoulders patterns tend to do.
The pattern’s Head is being retested up to 1880.75. But Head & Shoulders patterns can hold a retest of their Head, instead of extending the trend. Being an overnight pattern, not yet reversing back down by 9:45 would better enable extending higher this morning.
This is also the critical 1880.50-1881.00 area discussed since yesterday’s close. Testing it post-open WITHOUT extending through it by 9:45 could be very bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Isolating sellers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Bouncing 13 points into and out of Monday’s noon hour peaked at 1895.00. But the bias environment exit was attacking the morning’s 1882.00 low. Plunging from there tested 1868.00 into the close, bouncing momentarily to attack 1874.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The decline tried resuming overnight, dipping to 1868.00 and then recovering up to 1872.75. Then it really resumed, dipping to fresh lows. And lower. Greeting Europe’s opens at 1856.00 reacted down even further to attack 1851.00, which was soon recovered. And now so has the entire overnight drop, as a fresh high is attacking 1880.00.
If, then…
Gaining traction for its effort Monday afternoon entitled the decline to lower lows this morning. This setup can invert if already rewarded overnight. Meanwhile, anything more substantial than an isolated test of 1856.00 would have suggested the corrective rally ended already. Yesterday’s decline was rewarded already. Now the test of 1856.00 can be isolated by exiting the overnight timing window back in positive territory. Then the recovery’s risk is at 1880.25-1881.00. Strong-handed buyers would either quickly exceed it. or else delay its test patiently. Weak-handed sponsorship would test it quickly before reversing down to duplicate the overnight drop to some degree.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1873.00would be unlikely to trigger the 1876.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open aove 1880.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1883.50 | 1876.50 |
| …would target | 1889.25 | 1882.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1872.50 | 1865.50 |
| …would target | 1867.00 | 1860.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.