Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Stay alert.
Late bias-down and bearish WedEX are fighting against timid buyers.
I call them timid buyers because they keep trying, and then stop short of anything impressive. Maybe there’s a reason for that.
There’s timid sellers, too. Entering the noon hour above the morning’s low before probing lower, and then recovering the morning’s low before the noon hour’s end, is a bullish setup. It was borderline today.
But sellers can be timid and still win the day. Bias-down just triggered late, and some remnant of the bearish WedEX may still be influential.
Be careful being short without breaking down under 1853.00-1855.50. Above 1868.00 could start to be squeezed higher.
REMINDER : I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREEN FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR STARTING NOW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Recovering 1.090 undermines the 1.0750 retest. But only closing above 1.1000 would negate the eventual retest at all.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply to probe above 1089.00 also ran into a gap. Filling it reacted down, which would still be bullish so long as 1089.00 holds as support. Back under 1084.00 would target a retest of Thursday’;s close.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Friday to once again chip away at 14.10 resistance which must still be recovered to launch a rallly.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Market turmoil triggered another round of flight-to-safety, which also can produce the eventual third higher close that required by the confirmed breakout.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The recent calm during stock market volatility may have decoupled Crude Oil from stocks, but that doesn’t prevent breaking lower in tandem.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not bouncing from 2.14 has broken lower to suggest a deeper pullback underway that can’t bottom earlier than Tuesday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: US markets are closed, but Globex is open through Monday morning. It re-opens normally Monday night.
Globex opens
Sun 6:00 PM ET
Globex close
Mon 1:15 PM ET
Globex open
Mon 6:00pm ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1886.50 | 1878.75 |
| …would target | 1892.75 | 1885.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1870.25 | 1862.50 |
| …would target | 1872.25 | 1855.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… That was the calm.
Post-open choppiness has wound the mechanism.
Gapping down more than 50 points doesn’t stop on a dime. This morning’s gap down quickly bounced sharply, from 1860.00 to 1881.00. But the 1881.00-1885.00 predictive range held through 9:45, and the balance of the morning has ranged choppily.
The new predictive range is 1865.00-1868.00. It’s getting quite the workout this morning. Every leg has overlapped it or reacted sharply to piercing or attacking it. Now the bias environment is lapsing, and trending can resume.
Entering the noon hour under 1865.00 would be likely to trend in that direction. Next lower target area is 1853.00-1855.50. Any lower is probably a lot lower.
Back above 1875.00 instead could produce fresh session highs. But that upside should be limited to 1881.00-1885.00, and nothing short of 1992.00 would reduce the vulnerability to trending back down into the close.
UPDATE: There is now a chance that I will be away during the last hour for 30-45 minutes IN ADDITION to the previous windows. I list specifics in the next post.