Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is busy, which is very unusual for an expiration session. The reports and events are high-profile and influential, and staggered throughout the day.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1920.50 | 1913.25 |
| …would target | 1928.25 | 1921.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1902.75 | 1895.50 |
| …would target | 1895.25 | 1888.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox delayed for Tuesday
Due to last-minute developments, I’m unable to produce Livestox today, or tomorrow. We will meet Tuesday at 12:15pm ET, and then again after Thursday’s close as the Investment Policy Committee’s managed portfolio begins launching by month-end.
Also, recall that next week’s Universe will be published by Monday evening. Meanwhile, the market continues to look especially ugly. January Effect candidates are buried, unable to overcome a newer pressure that has gladly taken the place of tax loss selling.
Keep posting analysis requests to the blog’s comments* section, and I’ll provide specific analysis as quickly as possible.
(*Did you know that “spam bots” exist, that can post automatically to the comments section? Neither did I. Not until they were posting literally several hundred a day. That took a couple of days before being able to automate their deletion. Meanwhile, one of the short-term protections is that I must “approve” comments before they’re visible. In case you were wondering.)
Post-open Review… Now THAT’S a range.
Wide overnight range dwarfed by the first hour.
Ultimately, the pre-open recovery opened back at the 1891.75 bias-up signal. It had been probed temporarily overnight, and the interim dip had tested the 1875.00 bias-down target.
The overnight low was retested. The first half-hour plunged to fresh lows at 1871.00. Probing under just 1881.00 during late-afternoon would have found an air pocket. But this was early enough to attract counter-trend sponsorship. At least, the 20-point plunge was deep enough to have satisfied its sponsorship.
The 1880.25 bias-down signal was recovered in time to invoke the grace period. During that time, the 1891.75 bias-up signal was exceeded. Then the 1899.25 bias-up target was exceeded. And the potential for testing “higher prior lows” around 1910.00 has been fulfilled… to within 3 ticks of 1912.00.
Overbought RSIs require the high’s retest, presumably to actually touch 1912.00, possibly probing it by 1 point. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest, too — a great example why this is not a timing tool. But until fresh post-open highs were to print, the decline is unlikely to resume today.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Attacking the 1874.50 overnight low to within 1 tick is unlikely to form a durable bottom. But it has produced a big bounce. The 1897.75 overnight high is being attacked now to within 3 points. Just avoiding another dip into the 1881.00-1885.00 range would be bullish, potentially all the way up to the 1910.00 area.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.