Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Holding up, emphasis on holding.
Still hovering at resistance.
The last retest of 2010.00 eventually probed above it, and above this morning’s 2012.50 high, to test 2014.00.
Its reaction down held 2003.00 as support, and then bounced. Back to 2010.00.
Now entering the position-squaring window, and there is still little or nothing reliable about today’s setup. It does have a silver lining — ending the day without trending aggressively in either direction would be likely to trend aggressively tomorrow.
And trending aggressively tomorrow would likely begin by gapping open either above 2016.00 or under 1998.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday fulfilled the longstanding pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785, Extended distribution during makes the leg less likely to be only a pullback, and likelier to extend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1070.50 sell signal Monday allows a close above 1077.70 to gain traction and extend higher, although Tuesday did not. Closing under 1070.50 would target 1939.00-1941.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up was suspicious since Monday’s dip to Thursday’s gap had stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping already into Tuesday’s open extended down enough to confirm Monday’s close under 154-00 that signals momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s weak open contrasted with the headlines, and a morning surge above 38.00 was reversed into negative territory, which has extended to under 36.00. A pullback had this much room, but not much time before resuming the rally — if a rally is valid.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Opening lower ranged narrowly sideways Tuesday. The puside momentum hasn’t lapsed, but it should be resumed very to maintain upward momentum.
Mid-day Update… Second chances? (And third?)
Another deep pullback is recovering.
The open’s probe above 2010.00 had reacted down. A recovery retested 2010.00. And now another recovery is testing 2010.00. All following yesterday’s late surge to 2010.00.
This current bounce to 2010.00 comes after holding a test of the afternoon’s 1999.00 bias-down signal, which had narrowly avoided triggering. Actually, the bounce is 3 points above the bias-up signal. That’s “no-bias trending,” which requires being retraced, whether back down to the 2007.00 bias-up signal, or to the 1999.00 1:20 print.
Already, 2007.00 is being retraced. Back under 2004.00 would make 1999.00‘s test likely — and there’s no bullish reason in this pattern to retest 1999.00. There’s no requirement to test 1999.00, and back above 2010.75 would be credible for launching a rally leg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The correlation of Wednesday’s ADP report to Friday’s payrolls is often controversial, but it does offer a snapshot or touchstone of the market’s sentiment toward employment ahead of Friday’s report. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes will be much more influential to price, first likely inhibiting volatility before reacting to the data.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
**FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2016.00 | 2007.00 |
| …would target | 2022.00 | 2013.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2008.00 | 1999.00 |
| …would target | 2002.50 | 1993.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.