Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… A gift-shopping morning?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to its 2043.00 bias-up target wasn’t being rejected, so the morning rallied as reward for Tuesday afternoon’s buyers having gained traction up to 2035.00. And then it kept rallying. The next likely objective of 2053.00 was met during the noon hour, and the potential to 2058.00-2060.00 was attacked to within 1 tick while the bias environment was lapsing. A late reaction down targeting 2051.25 stopped 1 tick short. Buyers gained traction for their efforts again, and left outstanding overbought RSIs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sellers stopped short on the drop into Wednesday’s close. They’ve been thrown another bone overnight, but didn’t hold on to it, either. Globex had initially bounced up to 2056.50, and then sank to touch what is this morning’s 2049.00 bias-down signal. Now that has been recovered to test 2054.00, unchanged from yesterday’s futures close.
If, then…
Today’s session closes early. Trending is never more difficult except for Saturdays and Sundays. And that’s without even indicating a gap. A dry cleaners gift-shopping morning? Fading the extremes may be easier than trying to position at the range’s midpoint. Somehow gapping under yesterday afternoon’s 2048.00 low could form a session-long decline, or just the opposite if the gap down were not maintained or extended through the open. Yesterday’s traction suggests a reward due by probing fresh highs this morning, but not necessarily effortlessly like yesterday — and not necessarily durable.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2048.00 would be likely to trigger the 2049.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2053.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2069.25 | 2060.00 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2066.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2058.00 | 2049.00 |
| …would target | 2052.25 | 2043.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s late dip stopped within 1 point of its 2051.25 potential. The reaction recovered all but 1 tick back to the 2057.75 high. The high wasn’t touched, leaving outstanding the overbought RSIs there requiring a retest.
The RSIs retest is likely since sellers expended energy without gaining traction. That’s due to a post-close reaction down that came within 1 tick of fulfilling the 2051.25 potential. Also, buyers gained traction for their efforts (I’m giving them a benefit of the doubt on the bias environment exit and final hour entry trending up.)
Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s 2048.00 low could form a “session-long decline” setup. But Thursday being a half-session can also be a wild card with the most reliable of setups.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsfymr
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… No sequel.
Today’s rally didn’t gain its own traction.
Yesterday’s buyers gained traction for their efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and for then extending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Their reward was to control this morning’s bias environment by probing higher.
They got their reward, but the probing continued. Fresh highs during the noon hour fulfilled the next higher objective at 2053.00. Potential to 2058.00-2060.00 was attacked to within 1 tick during the afternoon’s bias environment.
Buyers didn’t gain traction today, as only the bias environment exit trended. Nevertheless, overbought RSIs at the 2057.75 high requires a retest. An interim pullback to 2051.25 is possible, leaving the retest outstanding. Testing it first would have room up to 2060.00 before the pullback to 2051.25 would be an issue again.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s close wasn’t rejected immediately, Tuesday, but that delay was compensated by gapping down Wednesday to test 1.0900. The 1.0750-1.0785. pullback target remains in-play.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s closing test of the 1074.00 pullback limit wasn’t recovered Wednesday, as price broke lower into the morning. Now closing above 1077.70 is needed to resume the rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Tuesday didn’t undermine upward momentum, but neither did it refuel the upward momentum, which could benefit from dipping to trap shorts.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 154-30 sell signal Tuesday resolved lower Wednesday to test the 153-30 prior low. Even in the most bullish scenario, a bounce back to 154-30 can’t be discounted before extending down more substantially.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly and firming intraday tested the 36.79-36.85 buy signals that had held their test last Friday.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s pullback had stopped short of exploiting all of its room down to 1.85, but the rally resumed anyway on Wednesday, extending to test 1.91. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a new upleg has been launched.