Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally’s challenge in gapping up to test prior highs or higher prior lows is not to reject their test. That’s been the pattern this week, so we’ll be watching for signs of repeating that pattern, or else rejecting it. Then we’ll see whether there’s still any of that seasonal holiday bullishness available.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzwtrb
The First Trade… Wearing Santa’s elves thin.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Surging into greeted Tuesday’s open too optimistic after forming a Rising Wedge minutes earlier. The reaction down from 2024.00 to 2010.50 still triggered bias-up. The balance of the session trended back up to the pre-open high, and higher. Outside potential to the 2035.00 area triggered a 9-point reaction down that recovered to 2031.00 at the cash session close, and 2036.50 at the futures close. Buyers gained traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping shallowly back to 2031.00 waited until Europe’s opens before resuming the rally. Trending up since then has extended to 2045.50.
If, then…
Gaining traction through yesterday afternoon’s checkpoints should reward buyers by also probing higher during this morning’s bias environment. That can be inverted if overnight action has already been rewarding. That’s determined by whether the open holds the test of a relevant resistance — be it calculable like the 2043.00 bias-up target, or structural like 2046.75 that was the last relative high, or that last relative high’s 2038.50 prior low. Seasonal bullishness is helpful to extend a rally, but extending it too quickly can eventually be helpful to attracting shorts.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2046.00 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by exceeding the 2043.00 bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2038.50 would be likely to trigger the 2035.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2044.25 | 2035.00 |
| …would target | 2052.25 | 2043.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2033.75 | 2024.50 |
| …would target | 2028.00 | 2018.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Buyers gained traction for Tuesday’s efforts. The 2027.75 bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s 2025.00 high and the 3:10-3:20 window trended up to fresh highs (a proxy for the final hour’s entry not clearly probing above the bias environment’s 2029.25 high). Their reward is to probe fresh highs through Wednesday morning’s bias environment.
Already probing higher overnight and rejecting it through Wednesday’s open could trigger the inverse. And having trended up into Tuesday’s close, gapping down under Wednesday afternoon’s low could form a “session-long decline” setup. Reversing down Wednesday is a risk because Tuesday’s high fulfilled its outside potential to 2035.00.
But higher highs are likelier for having closed above 2027.00 to avoid reversing the trend down. And seasonal bullishness can be influential — as if it isn’t already.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfxwjt
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Brief pause.
Getting ready to extend the recovery.
Tuesday is a trending session, as timing windows probe other timing windows in the same direction as each other. Exiting the afternoon’s bias environment in the trend’s direction suggests that counter-trend sponsorship is marginalized.
This morning’s late signals had prevented marginalizing sellers. They’re the counter-trend sponsorship. So, this afternoon’s development can be well-rewarded, either by extending the trend higher, or by absorbing a counter-trend dip.
Potentially bearish consequences to extending above 2027.00 that I described previously would still be relevant. Meanwhile, the rubber band can be stretched further to test the 2035.00 area.
A healthier alternative would preserve its buying pressure by dipping next to test 2021.00-2022.50. That doesn’t seem of interest.