Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 15, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is relatively busy and consistent. Several of its items are high-profile, but only the pre-open CPI has a track record of influencing price action.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Any more takers?
Lowest calculable objective met, held, already well rewarded.
Ultimately, this morning resolved down. Great effort was expended pre-open and post-open to avoid triggering sell signal or to recover from them. But the ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs triggered late bias-down.
The 1990.25 bias-down target was met, as was the lowest calculable objective of 1983.50. In fact, the latter held and reacted up sharply, currently testing 2001.25.
Yet, the series of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Trend reversals must recover not just one but two prior extremes. And this one is still only touching its second at 2001.25.
It’s the noon hour, which inherently makes the bounce suspicious. And it is struggling at the natural resistance of retracing 61.8% back to the open’s highs.
Triggering the 2002.50 bias-up signal in an hour would launch an entirely credible recovery attempt. Resuming the decline could find sellers very well refueled.
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2011.50 | 2002.50 |
| …would target | 2017.00 | 2008.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.75 | 1986.75 |
| …would target | 1990.25 | 1981.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Two sponsorships is no sponsorship.
Still testing both bias signals as the grace period begins.
Actually, that scenario has since been resolved. This is a late bias-down environment. But even that signal is suspicious.
The 2009.50 bias-up signal was tested at the open. Holding its test through 10:15 would have put into play and offsetting test of the 1995.50 bias-down signal. Except, the 1995.50 bias-down signal was being overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
1995.50‘s test was courtesy of a 13-point plunge. That was nothing. A 20-1/2 point surge probed fresh highs at 2014.00. It overlapped the 2009.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke its grace period, too.
Not unprecedented. Just too very rare to test both bias signals around 10:15.
The biggest move yet was the return to fresh lows at 1992.00, triggering late bias-down. Even that was made suspect by immediately bouncing to 2001.25. It has now reacted down back under the 1995.50 bias-down signal.
This is another opportunity to prove sellers have no sponsorship under Friday’s lows. Exiting the bias environment in positive territory would be least such indication. By the same token, exiting the bias environment in negative territory could be the catalyst that attracts much more durable selling pressures.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally through Friday afternoon’s 2015.25 high had been rejected by a plunge attacking the 1990.25 bias-down target to within 1 point. Now that is reacting back up sharply to within 1-1/2 points of the 2009.50 bias-up signal.
Did the overnight drop accomplish what Friday’s post-close drop tried, which was to prove sponsorship for extending down didn’t exit? Or, is this pre-open bounce as premature as the overnight rally, and about to suffer the same consequence?
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfmcmk