Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
You know the overnight pullback that had extended back to yesterday’s 2065.00 lows? The one that had extended pre-open down to 2062.00, next targeting 2060.00? Right, that one. Well, now the open is being greeted at 2055.50.
If 2060.00 and preferably 2065.00 are recovered through the opening 15 minutes, then today could be an upside blowout to the upside. If that template doesn’t catch quickly, then the next lower objective is to test 2048.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpwypw
The First Trade… Still a corrective dip?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap down had extended lower without hesitation, not until fulfilling the 2075.00 minimum corrective target that was required after Friday afternoon’s weak-handed rally. The balance of the morning extended down, too, fulfilling the correction’s penultimate potential to 2065.00. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, until a late surge ended the cash session back at 2075.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late surge had extended up to 2082.00 through the futures close. The Globex open immediately reversed back down to attack 2069.00. Choppy flat-to-lower ranging went on to attack yesterday’s ~2065.00 lows. And now that is breaking lower to 2062.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s late surge didn’t require being corrected since its sponsorship was not counter-trend. Correcting anyway could be satisfied at 2073.00 or 2071.00. Dipping deeper overnight is not predictive, not even all the way back down to yesterday’s lows. Already recovering back above 2073.00 or 2071.00 through the open could leverage the extra rejected dip into a much more powerful morning rally. Otherwise, Monday’s correction of Friday afternoon’s rally may instead resume to its ultimate potential target of 2060.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2071.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2073.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2075.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 9:15 already back under 2065.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2066.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
We knew the morning’s decline had likely ended upon meeting the pullback’s 2065.00 corrective target. We also knew the rally wasn’t likely to resume immediately, and not to expect buy signals to be very productive. The rally wasn’t required to resume at all Monday, so it shouldn’t be surprising that only a last-hour buy signal finally extended beyond its first 3 minutes or 3 points.
In fact, that last leg did rally through its 2069.00 buy signal back to the 2074.50 prior highs. And then higher, to its 2077.50 target and higher. Unlike similarly time late breakouts from last week, Monday’s doesn’t require correcting because it is counter-trend. The session earlier was a correction. So, presumably the rally has resumed — or still want to resume.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvbzfc
CLICK HERE for the older version of Omnijoin, which we’re using tonight in the chaRTroom because there wasn’t time Monday to set-up the newer version.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2081.75 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2088.50 | 2087.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.25 | 2073.25 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2066.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… No rush. Not yet.
Consolidating the morning slide. Still.
The morning’s slide to 2065.00 fulfilled the correction’s objective. The noon hour was allowed time for consolidating before trying to recover. The afternoon bias environment was allowed that time, too. And apparently also the balance of the day.
The rally hasn’t yet resumed, but the assumption continues to be that it will resume. Monday morning’s correction of Friday afternoon’s rally is done, and there was no requirement to resume rallying today.
But without yet trending again today, Tuesday’s open should gap open to trend during the morning. Trending in either direction without gapping would be suspicious.