Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2054.25 | 2050.00 |
| …would target | 2060.00 | 2055.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2044.00 | 2039.75 |
| …would target | 2038.50 | 2034.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Too much of a good thing? Monday afternoon’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. That represented 10 points of the rally. The final hour trended another 10 points to fulfill the intraday rally’s next higher objective at 2049.25.
Was that already enough reward for the afternoon traction? Trending higher overnight wouldn’t make it any more stable. The most bullish scenario would inject a little pessimism for a pullback to 2035.00. Then trying to extend higher Tuesday morning would be credible for trending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfjzfh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… There’s more?
Marginalized sellers still being squeezed.
The noon hour had rallied up to 2033.00 Exiting the noon hour with a dip to 2029.00 recovering above 2030.50 was likely to marginalize sellers for the day. In fact, the 2034.50 bias-up target was being pierced up to 2036.00 at 1:20.
That didn’t necessarily renew the bias-up signal, but I gave it a benefit of the doubt. And the renewed bias-up target at 2041.25 was met as the bias environment began lapsing. Now its reaction down is recovering to fresh session highs at 2048.50.
Marginalized sellers, indeed.
More so, buyers gained traction for their effort. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high and the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s high. Probing higher highs is likely tomorrow morning — assuming too much ground wasn’t covered overnight, or into today’s close.
The ground covered already into today’s close is starting to be a little too much.
Back under 2041.00 would start to signal today’s rally was done, with a pullback targeting 2035.00. Any updated or new signal will depend on how much higher the rally runs, if at all.
Daily Spot… Crude is done being done.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Volatility in the wake of Friday’s tragedy didn’t extend the decline, further suggesting that a bottom is forming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially gapping up Sunday night was retraced back into the range. No further downside is required before launching a durable rally, which would be triggered by closing above 1089.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s gap up was largely retraced, but not reversed. A retest of last week’s low is likely to hold while in the process of forming a bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Sunday night attacked the 154-10 limit whose recovery would signal momentum reversing up. Unless exceeded immediately Tuesday, the corrective bounce has likely ended and a fresh low is in-play.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another fresh low Monday was accompanied by RSIs diverging positively while the 39.95-40.00 target area was attacked to within a dime. The intraday reaction up back above 42.00 is credible at least for being a temporary corrective rally.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.37 Monday helped to serve by proxy for not having closed above it Friday along with 2.31. Closing above 2.41 is the confirmation that a new rally leg is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 17, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s CPI is high-profile and has a track record of influencing price action. The noon hour’s Fed speaker probably has the best chance to trigger volatility.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
12:35 PM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
3:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET