Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two high-profile, influential reports Thursday morning are scheduled pre-open and then post-open. And any noticeable reaction to the pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open report.
Bank of England policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2571.75 | 2573.75 |
| …would target | 2579.00 | 2581.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2560.00 | 2562.00 |
| …would target | 2551.00 | 2553.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Too much, too late.
Post-open surge is productive, for now.
The overnight rally ultimately extended to pierce yesterday’s 2562.50 late surge peak. 
But the last 90 minutes fell suddenly, steeply, and substantially to greet the open at 2547.00-2549.00. The pullback was deep, and it had originated from above yesterday’s late high. This was a new rubber band stretch, and a big potential reward (to retrace the pullback).
In fact, the pullback was retraced and then extended. The 2564.50 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, and its 2572.00 renewed bias-up target was probed.
A reversal attempt under 2569.00 just failed, resolving in a test of 2574.00. Extending the open’s surge could get overly optimistic ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, or even in reaction. But this is not from nearly as strong a base as if the open itself had already recovered yesterday’s
late high — which should make the FOMC events all the more fun.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The rubber band is stretched.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s session included several overtly optimistic characteristics, different from Monday’s, but keeping alive the contrarian bearishness. Tuesday’s gap up was extended to 2574.00 before reversing back down into Monday’s close at 2555.00. Another bounce attacking the high was also retraced fully. That reaction extended back down to Monday’s 2532.00 low entering the final hour. Quickly bouncing 30 points was nevertheless retraced through the close, its catalyst being a warning from FDX, finally fulfilling the decline’s 2530.00 target.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open immediately began reversing the late plunge to 2530.00. The retracement had reached 2555.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly sideways through Europe’s opens continued holding the range’s 2552.00 lower-end. The recovery eventually resumed to now attack yesterday’s late surge peak to within 1 point at 2561.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The decline’s 2530.00 target was actually met after the close. Its test was likely to be done on the way down to 2500.00, which is still likely. But now the door to a detour has opened. Tuesday’s late surge could have triggered a detour by maintaining its probe above 2555.00. Gapping up and extending Wednesday above 2564.50 could still qualify by proxy. Otherwise, almost any post-open dip back into the 2530.00-2538.00 range will mean the stretched rubber band is snapping back down, and likely to probe its lower-end and then extend the decline — vulnerable to accelerating.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2562.50 would likely also exceed the 2564.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2555.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2557.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 3554.00 | 2557.50 |
| …would target | 2561.00 | 2564.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2539.75 | 2543.25 |
| …would target | 2532.00 | 2535.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.