Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Holding up is holding out.
Hovering choppily above the gap up.
I had suspected the pre-open rally was not durable. I had wondered whether its high could be retested before trending back down. I don’t think the 2065.00-2066.00 pullback limit was rejected and recovered, but tests of the 2063.50 sell signal only overlapped it before reacting up.
The range is centered around 2063.50 / 2065.00-2066.00. The morning seems committed to maintaining its attraction, if not also remaining within it — instead of trending back above it or below it.
2063.50 support has been chipped away, but not breaking lower by 10:30 makes it unlikely to break lower before 11:30. So, trying anyway to break it between 10:30-11:30 should be punished by an offsetting fresh post-open high.
Should be. Normally would be. This is a Friday, so be aware that Friday timing windows can be fungible. And 2063.50 is being probed again…
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The spikes up to 2074.50 have continued retracing into the open, now probing into 2065.00-2066.00. And I just finished describing this area as being the likely pullback limit for maintaining 2074.50‘s potential retest. I’m suspicious of the retest’s ability to extend much higher before peaking, let alone reversing down. Under 2063.50 would start to confirm my suspicion, without the detour of probing a fresh high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsmzjk
The First Trade… The mountain just got taller.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up above the prior afternoon’s high immediately rejected that prior session’s downtrending close. And that’s the recipe for a “session-long rally,” which proceeded to rally sharply. Finally closing beyond the range around 2019.50 put into play the next higher objective at 2055.00. Buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts, and oversold RSIs at the afternoon’s 2034.50 low require a retest..
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending higher into and out of the close quickly fulfilled the next higher 2055.00 objective. Spiking up at the Globex open quickly came within 1 tick of 2062.00. Then price began shifting lower, all the way through Europe’s opens, albeit at a shallow slope that bottomed above yesterday’s highs at 2053.25. Then the initial overnight high was probed by 1 point up to 2063.25… Oh, and then China cut its interest rates and its reserve requirements ratio, triggering a spike up to 2074.25.
If, then…
Session-long setups tend to extend into the following morning. Done. And since Thursday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction, gapping up is the only way to maintain the uptrend. Done… or overdone? Friday’s are different animals due to the impending weekend illiquidity. That make us into different animals as it shifts our focus, or dilutes it. So does 57 points in 24 hours, after already having rallied considerably. Closing above 2055.00 would put into play 2088.00, and gapping up would leave unfinished business above if post-open action were to reverse down — none of which prevents trending back down this morning back to yesterday’s highs. Today more than usual, the opening 15 minutes will be very revealing.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2057.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2056.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. That doesn’t seem very relevant at the moment ;)
Livestox!
Join me Friday at 12:15pm ET for this week’s intraday Livestox. CLICK HERE by 12:15.
We’ll discuss the improving picture for Cannabis stocks, my recent picks for timeliness, and discuss recent earnings coverage.
Don’t forget to keep checking the most current post’s comments. A lot of great ideas are coming out there.
My newest timely pick is a longtime short that has been cut in half since picking its top there months ago — INSY, which is now meeting my target, while volume improves into a retest with RSIs diverging positively.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2057.75 | 2051.00 |
| …would target | 2062.75 | 2056.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2048.75 | 2042.00 |
| …would target | 2040.75 | 2034.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.