Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Big refueling rolls over.
Post-open bounce gives decline a lot of leeway.
Gapping down to the morning’s 2593.75 bias-down signal and extending to 2571.00 had apparently gotten ahead of itself. 
Its reaction had room up to the morning’s 2606.50 bias-up signal while still being likely to resolve down — rewarding sellers for absorbing the post-open bounce — as much as punishing the bounce for not gaining traction .
The bounce got to within 1 point of 2606.50. It was retested at noon, and held. The noon hour trended back down to eventual probe the morning’s low by 1 point of 2569.50.
This afternoon’s 2588.00 bias-down signal has triggered, and its 2580.25 bias-down target is exceeded at 1:20 to renew the bias-down. Its next lower objective is essentially 2555.00, although probably encountering 1-2 support tests along the way down.
Not yet extending down during the bias environment wouldn’t be bullish, unless the window were exited back above its 2580.25 bias-down target. That could produce another oversold corrective bounce ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. But no bottoming pattern is yet in sight.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 18, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar isn’t very busy as the FOMC meeting gets underway.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2604.25 | 2608.00 |
| …would target | 2613.50 | 2617.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2584.00 | 2588.00 |
| …would target | 2576.25 | 2580.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Setting the tone.
Opening plunge’s retracement only resets the opening plunge.
Last night’s bounce up to the 2616.50 bias-up target had been retraced down to 2602.00 through Europe’s opens. 
A couple of times. The second time fell further, probing under Friday’s lows to greet the open at the 2593.75 bias-down signal.
Price promptly plunged through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to fresh lows at 2571.00. The next half hour recovered to attack 2593.75 to within 2 points, reacting down enough and in time to trigger bias-down.
The 2586.00 bias-down target held to avoid renewing the signal, but this is still a bias-down environment. The drop is free to resume, especially under 2581.00 — whose test just reacted up 13 points.
Today’s opening print was within last Monday’s range, so it is not a gap down under all prior lows that would require being retested from above. A rally here would leave no unfinished business below. However, that same opening structure undermines the gap back up to Friday’s close from being filled.
That said, back above 2595.50 could test 2622.00, back into Friday’s and last night’s ranges, while still being likely to resume the decline. The next lower objective is 2530.00-2538.00, probably on the way down to 2500.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…Marking time.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down held a test of Tuesday’s ~2626.00 low through the open and bounced. As did a mid-morning retest. Which usually on Fridays will have trapped sellers into getting squeezed for a bigger bounce through the close. But Friday’s retest of Tuesday’s low failed before the bias environment had lapsed, reflecting stronger-handed sponsorship. Two noon hour reversal attempts were facilitated by Friday Factors, but not exploited as the balance of the session trended back down to prior lows attacking 2597.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to a fresh low at 2595.50 and immediately began recovering. Hovering at or above 2616.00 began breaking lower before Europe’s opens, and extended through Europe’s opens, until touching 2602.00. Its 11-point reaction up has now been retraced entirely to pierce under 2601.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close was a new low close, albeit still within the range of Monday’s prior intraday low. The latter aspect keeps alive potential for another bounce. But any delay should be only a formality while in the process of launching another downleg of the bigger picture’s ongoing decline. The resolution to this morning’s open could dictate whether the near-term resolution includes another bounce. Leaving a gap outstanding won’t be predictive.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2608.50 would be likely to trigger the 2606.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2599.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.