Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Target met, and held.
Offsetting test neutralized, and neutralizing.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2018.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2026.50 bias-up signal.
Absorbing the initial probe of 4 points under 2018.00 didn’t require any greater reward. Neither did absorbing the 6-point dip back down to 2018.00.
However it is that 2026.50 came to be met, its attraction is now neutralized. Combined with filling the gap back to Friday’s close in that area, and with the noon hour beginning, a pullback is now testing 2021.50.
Fresh session highs visiting 2031.50 are likely so long as the afternoon’s bias-down signal doesn’t trigger. Only a temporary visit to 2031.50 is possible, followed by reversing down to sharply into the close. Regardless, there is no unfinished business above in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 20, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A housing sector report was Monday’s only item. It’s Tuesday’s only item, too. It has potential to influence price action for that reason alone. Surprising strength would help to confirm strength in Monday’s report that was otherwise dismissed.
*Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Bill Dudley speaks
9:00 AM ET
Janet Yellen speaks
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2034.00 | 2026.50 |
| …would target | 2039.00 | 2031.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2027.00 | 2019.50 |
| …would target | 2021.50 | 2014.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Last one for the gapper.
Pre-open slide tries extending. Nice try.
The open was bouncing from 2016.00 to 2019.00. Selling resumed and fresh lows were probed down to 2014.25. Almost as quickly, 2019.00 was being retested as resistance. And that has extended up to 2024.00.
The 2018.00 bias-down signal’s test held through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2026.50 bias-up signal. Higher highs probed after 10:15 make it much more difficult to invalidate the objective.
Despite having probed higher after 10:15 up to 2024.00, a reaction down is testing 2018.00 as support. It’s too late to trigger bias-down, and to late to invalidate the no-bias. So, this should be bias environment range’s lower-end.
Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2018.00 might undermine extending higher today. But actually invalidating the upside attraction would require exiting the bias environment under the 2014.25 pre-open low.
The First Trade… Compensating for the delay?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration session ranged widely around 2019.50. The afternoon’s no-bias environment probed 4-points under its 2016.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction kept going, extending to fresh session highs attacking 2027.00 instead of resuming the decline. That was contrary to the bearish WedEx, although only the last half-hour probed fresh session highs above 2023.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open initially pulled back to attack 2018.00. Consolidating until Europe’s opens then surged to fresh highs at 2028.00. That has been retraced almost entirely down to 2019.00.
If, then…
The last chance for any bearish WedEX influence is Monday’s open, to begin trending down throughout the morning. This does not preclude the open from gapping up, and then sliding. And it does not include trending down only before the open. Regardless, the bearish WedEX is probably moot if the market is not already dropping during the opening 15 minutes.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2016.50 would likely trigger the 2018.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2011.00 would likely also exceed the 2013.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Recovering 2024.00 through the open would be unlikely to trigger the 2018.00 bias-down signal at 10:15