Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… A late break.
Morning’s support being tested.
The 2625.00 post-open low was well above the overnight low.
But it held a test of Tuesday’s late low. And so did a mid-morning drop, after an interim bounce attacked 2641.00. Oh, and this is Friday.
Usually, Friday’s sponsorship is evident by the morning’s end. If trending is attempted, then either it is successful, or it is not. And if not, then that sponsorship is done for the day. It’s a function of Friday Factors, which are behaviors specific to two days of impending illiquidity.
So, breaking under 2625.00 as this morning’s bias environment lapsed was unusual. The dip tested 2610.00 and avoided triggering this afternoon’s bias-down. Which hasn’t prevented a fresh low from testing 2607.50.
The late decline is credible, this being a Friday. If the decline is valid, then it could be substantial — not only down to this afternoon’s 2603.00 bias-down target and Monday’s 2588.00 low, but potentially much lower into and out of the weekend. Absorbing the late extra dip back above 2622.00 would still have potential back up to positive territory.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 17, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s two econ reports are relatively high-profile, but not reliably influential to price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction to the pre-open report will likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2621.25 | 2625.25 |
| …would target | 2627.75 | 2631.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2608.00 | 2612.00 |
| …would target | 2599.00 | 2603.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Restrained optimism.
Post-open bounce stops short of its potential.
Eking higher from the 2617.25 overnight low go to 2631.50. Dipping into and out of the open tested Tuesday’s 2625.75 low by 3 ticks and bounced. Two more pullbacks also recovered on the way to probing the 2638.75 bias-down target by 1 point, retracing 61.8% of the overnight drop.
RSIs diverged negatively, and the next pullback didn’t stop until probing the opening low down to 2623.00. But having held a test of Tuesday’s low as support through the opening 15 minutes, its retest after 10:15 was likely to hold, too. Which it did, now reacting up to 2636.00.
Holding support, and stopping pessimistically short of touching yesterday’s 2641.25 “higher prior lows” suggest that sellers are marginalized for the morning. Probably. But not maintaining its recovery above 2636.00 keeps the door open just enough.
Back under 2627.25 would give another downleg a chance to form. Otherwise, fresh highs could recover positive territory.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The precipice is starting back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2665.50 open was a 10-point gap, but nearly 10 points under the overnight high. Which a post-open surge retested before the bias signal triggered. The balance of the session formed a series of wide-swinging lower lows and lower highs through the afternoon bias environment’s 2641.25 low. Bouncing into the position-squaring window held a retest of the bias environment’s 2659.00 high, settling mid-range to close at 2650.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex had only ranged narrowly around 2650.50 for an hour when a Trump allegation headline triggered a slide down to attack 2627.00. Flat-to-lower ranging into Europe’s opens started sliding again to 2617.00. Reacting up is testing the earlier low up to 2629.50, still a double-digit loss from yesterday’s close.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There’s nothing artificial about the pullback’s fresh lows greeting today’s open. But reinforcements have room down to 2612.00 or even to 2603.00 before confirming that the bigger decline has resumed with a more durable, productive break under October’s lows. To which the session will remain vulnerable even if the morning bounces, at least until a relevant timing window were to recover 2636.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2636.00 would be likely also to exceed this 2638.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.