Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… One-way street.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
For never committing either way, Tuesday’s session ranged widely. The first hour offered a glimpse by its opening dip to fresh lows at 1866.00 which then reacted up to 1890.00. Trending down through the noon hour was corrected during the bias environment, and then extended to even lower lows until the last half-hour. The lowest low stopped 2 ticks optimistically short of touching the 1861.00 overnight low before reacting up. The impatient buying persisted, extending the reaction up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s sellers had gained traction by entering the final hour under bias environment low, and then extending through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. But the evening’s 7-point dip to 1871.00 reacted up sharply, and extensively. Last week’s 1897.00-1899.00 lows are now being probed above 1900.00.
If, then…
Whatever traction gained by yesterday afternoon’s sellers can be rendered moot by a gap up maintained above the session’s 1890.00 high and by trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Failing either condition still might not reverse back down immediately, but extending any higher would be only temporary. Extending higher only temporarily can still be pretty productive, up to 1904.75 or to 1915.00 — retesting yesterday’s lows from too high and after too long would find expended buyers unable to prevent a deeper decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1897.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1892.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up signal is next targeting 1899.00.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s late bounce from the 1861.50 low extended up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit. That’s natural resistance and there’s nothing unnatural about testing it before resuming the decline.
Of course, extending the late rally makes it easier to recover higher levels that would delay rewarding Tuesday’s sellers for gaining traction. The burden of that proof is on buyers. Meanwhile, the late bounce essentially expended all possible buying pressure during a window when it could not gain traction for the effort. That’s the stuff of weak hands, like the impatient buyers that caused the afternoon’s drop to stop optimistically short of touching the overnight low 2 ticks lower. And that’s bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Rewarding Tuesday’s sellers can begin overnight, within limitations. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpbzcz
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1896.00 | 1886.00 |
| …would target | 1902.00 | 1892.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1877.50 | 1867.50 |
| …would target | 1872.00 | 1862.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… That’s leaving a mark.
Final hour trending to new post-open extreme.
2:30’s 1877.00 print wasn’t necessarily contained within the noon hour’s range, but bias environment exit was overlapping the noon hour’s high instead of exceeding it. Anyway, its surge up to 1879.00 reacted down sharply to enter the final hour under the noon hour’s 1868.50 low.
Along came the tie breaker, i.e. the 3:10-3:20 timing window, which broke under the morning’s 1865.75 low. Sellers gained traction.
That extended down to 1861.50. If sellers got ahead of themselves, then they did a good job of correcting it, stopping optimistically short of touching the overnight low within 2 ticks, and reacting up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit — natural resistance.
Absent gapping up above today’s 1886.00 and 1889.75 highs, tomorrow morning is likely to probe under today’s lows.
Daily Spot… Being scared into buying bonds.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday night’s probe above 1.1265 was repeated intraday Tuesday and ultimately probed into late-afternoon, which undermines resuming the decline unless rejected aggressively without delay.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight were repeated intraday, keeping in-play potential down to 1117.00, which would be confirmed under 1125.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Tuesday held above 14.50 to avoid putting into play fresh lows under 14.20, and still allowing a close above 14.65 to signal the pullback had ended.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight at 158-00 were reversed in time for Tuesday’s open to gap down, but that didn’t prevent retesting overnight highs intraday. The rally remains more vulnerable to extending than to collapsing during a flight-to-quality, and until closing back under 156-16.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trading firmer Tuesday didn’t recover the 46.00 bounce limit that keeps 42.80 in-play below.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Retracing back into the range Monday after gapping up above it left “unfinished business above” at its opening print. That didn’t prevent probing the range’s 2.63 lower-end intraday, down to last Thursday’s EIA knee-jerk reaction down to 2.59. Closing back above 2.63 would signal the range’s lower-end was still holding, and potentially launching a rally leg.