Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Sparing the formalities.
Noon hour low is already testing the target.
The next lower objective under 1899.00 is 1884.00. Not exiting this morning’s bias environment back above a relevant level would leave 1884.00 outstanding to become “unfinished business below.”
So much simpler just to fulfill its test. Which was done soon after noon. And now it’s being probed down to 1881.50.
1884.00 is essentially this afternoon’s bias-down signal. The bullish scenario would avoid triggering the signal at 1:20, instead of trying to bounce back from its target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 29, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Of at least two high-profile reports on Tuesday, one is also reliably influential to price action. And coming post-open, any noticeable reaction to the two pre-open reports would likely be duplicated.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1904.50 | 1894.25 |
| …would target | 1911.25 | 1901.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1894.00 | 1883.75 |
| …would target | 1888.50 | 1878.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Venting, indeed.
Opening sell-off probes last week’s lows.
The post-open crowd was going to acknowledge last night’s selling one way, or another. Only gapping up would have inhibited a post-open extension of Friday afternoon’s plunge.
But what could have been absorbed around 1900.00 has instead extended to test 1893.00.
And that’s not the bearish part, probing fresh lows, no matter how low. Testing any fresh low can be potentially bullish, depending on when and how its test begins, and on when and how it ends.
Probing under last week’s 1897.00-1899.00 low AFTER 10:15 could have been rendered moot by then recovering it by 11:30. Isolating its test to the bias environment would make it only noise.
However 1897.00-1899.00 was already being probed when the bias environment began at 10:15. Rejecting it must recover the last downleg’s origin when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. That’s essentially 1909.00.
Currently a bounce is testing 1897.00-1899.00 as resistance. There is no unfinished business below, since 1-minute RSI diverged at the low. But back under 1894.50 would resume the decline, next targeting 1884.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The last failed bounce to 1912.00 had probed fresh lows attacking 1902.00. Now another recovering to 1912.00 is reacting down again. Intraday selling hasn’t yet responded to the overnight drops, and not much more to Friday’s late drop which was lightly attended.
While that can quickly devolve into a new downleg, we’ll be monitoring fresh lows for any signs of sellers having become absorbed. Meanwhile, bouncing right away without hesitation would still be vulnerable to reacting down to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcwzjf