Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Islands.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down sharply Friday helped to confirm that Thursday did contain the corrective bounce’s peak. But the gap also created room for another slight bounce while awaiting the eventual third lower close in-play.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s runaway rally had already indicated its momentum was peaking before Friday’s open gapped down to test the 1141.50 prior highs as support. The inside day should next extend down to 1129.50-1134.00 and before filling the gap back up to Thursday’s close. Filling the gap first would be more toppy.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s rally had stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close, so Friday’s reaction down recovered entirely back to Thursday’s highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday formed an Island of Thursday’s gap up that had held its resistance. Filling the gap back to Thursday’s close would be bearish instead of extending down first to test 153-24 support.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Friday didn’t even bother trying to invalidate the decline underway, still targeting 42.80.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s inside day gapped down to probe the same 2.56 prior lows that Thursday’s dip had recovered, ending the day hovering around it. The price action doesn’t equate to being a buy signal, but any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon, Sep 25, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers highlight what usually isn’t a very active day for economic events Monday. Several reports due out are relatively high-profile, but only the housing sector report can influence price action, and then only if it is a surprise.
*William Dudley Speaks
7:45 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1949.00 | 1938.00 |
| …would target | 1956.00 | 1945.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1942.00 | 1931.00 |
| …would target | 1936.50 | 1925.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Chilling.
Overnight rally is correcting post-open.
The pre-open pullbacks down to 1938.00-1939.00 broke lower to attack this morning’s 1931.00 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks. Its reaction up to 1939.50 reversed down to fresh lows at 1930.75.
Bias-up triggered along the way. Its bias-up target and renewed bias-up targets had been tested pre-open. But this is still a bias-up environment.
Probing a resh low would be understandable, but not required in order to rally.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 1951.00 tested 1941.25 down to 1939.00, bouncing sharply back up to 1949.00. Another pre-open dip is testing 1938.00, which must be recovered through 9:45 to make the bias-up signal likely to renew. Exiting the open above 1945.00 could marginalize sellers for the day…
Details and other markets are covered in the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfycbk