Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… New blood.
Open’s firming only delayed the inevitable.
A morning rally had to be obvious immediately post-open. Firming 2-3 points immediately from the 1931.00 open actually wasn’t too shallow. And its reaction down to 1928.00 recovered even more immediately to a higher high.
But rallying immediately should at least rally eventually, and there were no more bites left at that apple. Another dip’s recovery up to 1935.75 got a benefit of the doubt so long as its tight pullback limit held, which of course it did not.
Price action since then has slid relentlessly, now testing 1920.50 on simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs. And why not? The next lower objective under 1938.00 remains 1918.00 — with room for noise around it beginning at 1919.00 and stretching down to 1916.50.
It’s still possible this selling pressure is artificially exacerbated by the fast-approaching Yom Kippur illiquidity. We’ll monitor that area for any bottoming and reversal setups, which could be very productive through the balance of the session. But under 1915.00 would target 1899.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight plunge to 1928.25 was corrected back up to 1937.50. But it was too early to attract strong-handed buyers, so another downleg tested 1926.00.
1928.25 was recovered, suggesting that could have been last-minute capitulation. If that’s the cut from the same cloth as yesterday afternoon’s retrained optimism, then post-open action should barely hesitate before rallying. Potential attractions above are 1938.00 and 1945.00.
Not extending higher immediately would be vulnerable to resuming the decline. Remember, the next lower attraction is 1918.00. Details and other markets coverage was discussed in the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrhvpz
The First Trade… Back to square (-1).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s 1938.25 low had probed under Friday’s low before reversing well into positive territory. Monday’s gap up extended higher to probe above Friday’s intraday highs up to 1969.00. When the bias environment lapsed at 11:30, so did the bullish WedEX influence, unable to prevent a noon hour slide to 1944.25. The afternoon rallied back to 1961.25, but didn’t gain traction for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex firmed a little further to 1965.00 before retracing to 1958.00. Sideways ranging had dipped back to its lower-end into Europe’s opens. The bottom literally dropped out as a three-hour plunge fell to 1928.25.
If, then…
There’s no bullish reason to be retesting the same 1945.00 pullback limit that had stemmed Thursday night’s plunge. It also trapped Friday’s late low, and Monday’s noon hour low, both being intraday tests. It’s a different challenge to gap down under 1945.00. And gapping under 1938.00 would break the “lower prior highs” from which 1945.00 is derived. The next lower attraction would be 1918.00; under 1915.00 would target 1899.00. It’s possible this sell-off has become exacerbated ahead of this evening’s Yom Kippur observance, and its afternoon liquidity drain. Exiting the open above 1949.00 would suggest the selling has been limited to overnight action, opening the door to revisit last week’s highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 1945.00 would be the best chance at recovering the 1948.00 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1976.25 | 1966.25 |
| …would target | 1984.00 | 1973.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1965.50 | 1954.50 |
| …would target | 1959.00 | 1948.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
[Click here for the Morning Bias]
Monday afternoon’s bias-down signal was almost rejected. Price had risen high enough, and soon enough, but then peaked… The 3:10-3:20 timing window could have confirmed the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high. Price was well-positioned again, but not optimistic enough to push higher… Then the last-minute surge avoided probing fresh highs into the close. More restrained optimism.
Recovering back to Monday’s 1969.00 high is already likely. Multiple instances of patient buying does makes the retest of Thursday’s 2011.75 high likely, too. Of course, trending up into Monday’s close would make a gap down under the afternoon’s 1948.75 low form a session-decline setup.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbpzvx
This evening, monitor overnight Globex price action in these chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc