Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 18 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open LEI has a reliable track record of influencing price action, inhibiting trending before it, and then usually either reversing or accelerating any trending after it.
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1998.50 | 1988.25 |
| …would target | 1996.25 | 1995.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1091.00 | 1980.75 |
| …would target | 1985.50 | 1975.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox for lunch at 12:30 ET.
The market has recovered to its best levels since that recent unpleasantness. The Fed meets this afternoon to discuss how to wound it or kill it without looking guilty. And tomorrow’s so-called quadruple witch quarterly option and futures expiration has been painting prices into a corner.
We’ll discuss that, along with Gold’s potential bottom and Crude Oil’s potential top, in Livestox during the noon hour. Click here to enter the 12:30 ET Livestox session. Post any stock requests to the blog’s comments section (in this or the prior post), or attend the live session to ask there. See you soon!
Post-open Review… Hunkering down.
Post-open ranging not getting any takers.
Perhaps the prior two days’ pattern will repeat again today. They began trending up after a no-bias or noN-bias had been signaled. And their delay was compensated by trending up sharply.
Now this morning’s open has avoided triggering a bias, firming from 1980.50 up to 1986.50, centered around yesterday’s 1984.50 cash session close.
Late trending at all would still comply with the pattern of late trending — it can be downward and not necessarily up. But trending isn’t necessary at all, paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events.
Post-open Review… Tipping point.
Bouncing back up to 1987.00 still resolved down to fresh lows at 1980.25. Regardless of reacting up a little pre-open, that doesn’t change the potential for rallying post-open. Quickly recovering 1985.00 would still make the bias-up signal likelier to be tested, if not also triggered. Otherwise, not quickly rallying, or still hovering at or around pre-open lows, would be more vulnerable to an actual morning pullback. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjsxfk