Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1961.25 | 1949.75 |
| …would target | 1966.50 | 1955.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1943.50 | 1932.00 |
| …would target | 1935.50 | 1924.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap
Foreclosing upon further upside didn’t default to resuming the decline. So, that wasn’t the decline resuming? Breaking 16 points in an hour from — 1949.00 down to 1939.00 — certainly seems like a decline. Of course, it is a decline, but it didn’t necessarily resume the decline.
In fact, both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs teased at oversold without breaking it. That’s not selling pressure, that’s prices falling of their own weight. And that’s different from resuming the decline.
Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts, so there is no requirement for Friday to reward either. The last two Fridays ranged relatively narrowly after their opens. There’s room for ranging a couple dozen points above and below Thursday’s close, which will take a lot to resume the decline or to attempt another recovery.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap, click here.
Following are chaRTroom links to monitor the overnight Globex session:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Livestox tomorrow!
The new site seems ready for prime time, with an exception or two — both of which should be resolved overnight:
Automatic notifications to you of my posts
Emailed comments to all subscribers
On Friday, I’d like to take you on a tour of the site and its features, with some tips to consider in using it effectively. We’ll also layout the Livestox calendar, which is essentially Monday post-close and Thursday mid-day.
And let’s catch-up on the MJ sector, and discuss “The Investment Policy Committee” process. I’ll email instructions to you in the morning.
Pre-close View… Either. That’s all. Not or, just either.
This afternoon’s no-bias was signaled cleanly, not even touching the 1944.75 bias-up signal, let alone overlapping it in time to invoke the grace period. Exceeding it through 1:30 nevertheless invalidated whatever had been signaled at 1:20. And that extended 11 points to 1955.50. In 10 minutes.
Must have been some pretty serious buying, right? Actually, it has been retraced entirely, back into the noon hour’s range at 1939.00.
Extending higher through the bias environment’s exit would have been more than just a corrective bounce. A retest of yesterday’s 1992.00 pre-open high would have been in-play. Not extending higher has taken that off the table.
But the alternative is still unknown. Is yesterday’s decline resuming? Possibly. Or, is a temporary dip underway, with another bounce attempt coming? Also possible, albeit less so.
I don’t think today’s pattern will leave us any further instructions going forward — no hold-long or hold-short, only parameters.
Daily Spot… Euro rising.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
There was no more room or time allowed Thursday for further delaying an obvious recovery. Firming did produce a breakout above the multi-session range, now needing confirmation Friday from a second consecutive higher close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s drop to 1100.00 bounced overnight to gap up Thursday morning at 1110.00 resistance. Retesting Wednesday’s low down to 1098.50 would help to form a durable bottom to the recent pullback. Extending much higher too quickly could be too impatient to be maintained.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging continued to avoid the unfinished business below at 14.35, while barely participating in Gold’s gap up, so trending is still not yet credible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness stopped short of filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 153-12 open. Two dips had attacked it to within a quarter-point before spiking up on the 30-year auction results. But that reaction melted away, keeping alive the attraction down to 153-12.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight follow-through to Wednesday’s weakness was recovered enough pre-open and extended higher enough post-open to keep alive potential for probing fresh highs soon. But that doesn’t allow room to hesitate in continuing to extend higher, to avoid a much steeper drop.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday from the range’s 2.65 lower-end and extending higher intraday to test the range’s 2.73 upper-end still hasn’t broken above the ongoing channel to trigger a rally leg underway.