Posts by Rod David
Raising the bar by lowering the price.
Rewarding yesterday afternoon’s buyers is a little more difficult. PLUS a site update.
The overnight rally doesn’t qualify as rewarding yesterday afternoon’s buyers for having gained traction. That’s usually the following morning. That, or the following afternoon.
It clearly wasn’t this morning, which retraced all of the overnight rally up to 1992.00 back down unchanged at 1965.50. But not into negative territory.
It’s difficult giving buyers any benefit of the doubt without exiting the noon hour back above a prior high like 1973.75. But the noon hour pierced it only by 1 tick while 1-minute RSI diverged negatively. And now yesterday’s lat-minute 1968.75 high is being tested as support.
Even fresh lows won’t invalidate the potential for resuming the rally this afternoon. Fresh lows like testing the 1964.50 bias-down signal… without triggering it. Recovery potential remains alive so long as sellers don’t extend down during the afternoon’s bias environment. But delaying a recovery until this afternoon would require its slope to turn exponential, or else be sucked back down to yesterday’s lows.
SITE DEVELOPMENT NEWS: The decision has been made to remove the password protection while the developers consider another solution. Meanwhile, THIS LINK can serve as your link to the site. A direct path there upon login is being programmed now. I every much appreciate how patient everyone is being with this issue, thank you.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, but not very influential. Pre-open Claims has gotten a track record of having no influence, at least not without being a surprise. The afternoon’s 30-year auction will be interesting with the bond having fallen recently and dramatically to fresh lows.
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1975.50 | 1974.00 |
| …would target | 1980.75 | 1979.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1965.75 | 1964.50 |
| …would target | 1961.25 | 1959.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Putting it off for later.
Resuming the rally immediately post-open would have been credible for extending higher throughout the morning. Backing-and filling to lower levels was unlikely to begin quickly. Ranging around the 1986.00 open barely managed an errant tick above 1987.25 before reversing down sharply.
The reversal down extended. And extended. Despite having probed it overnight by 16 points, this morning’s 19676.25 bias-up target was being tested as support at 10:15. The bias-up signal was not renewed. And now the 1968.50 bias-up signal is being tested as support by 1 point.
Yesterday’s gap up reacted down, too, but held well above the prior session’s range. This morning’s reaction down has tested yesterday’s highs. Can today’s reaction down still recover to probe the 1992.00 overnight high like yesterday? That’s still the premise, since yesterday’s buyers gained traction for their effort.
And now rewarding them this morning makes an afternoon reward likely. Exiting the bias environment under this morning’s 1968.50 bias-up signal would invalidate that reward.
Pre-market Tour… Pay them now, or pay them later.
Consolidation off of the 1992.00 overnight high is still ranging several points either way around 1986.00. Resuming the rally post-open without delay would be credible for extending to fresh highs at 1996.00. A corrective dip is unlikely, but would likely recover this afternoon since the overnight rally — no matter how large — doesn’t qualify as rewarding yesterday afternoon’s buyers. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfpcxk